Sunday, 31 March 2019

How Asia's Money Flows, Policy They Will Set

Where we are today is really not the place we have always been, by this I mean by reference to Asia's Century. Whilst this is Asia Century that there is no doubt, but it came about through a well oiled cycle. Asia initial growth was a direct result of Western funding, money or a better term investments flowed from the US and Europe directly into the two waves of growth that I refer in a previous mail.  Read here the third wave. 

It's right to say that the US and to some extent Europe kicked this process off in building Japan and Korea up from what were the ashes of the 2nd World War. To some extent the US and European funds continued to flow for the 2nd wave of growth which included Taiwan, Vietnam and later China. At this stage Japan and Korea along with the US and Europe invested their hard-earned savings building what we have today a China that will soon, if it hasn't already will take the number 1 slot for the largest economy. Without this global approach to investment I'm sure this region would have struggled. But of course this was not a one way street, as big corporations were able to leverage cheap labour as the emerging markets emerged.

Of the 3rd wave, this was heavily skewed in favour of investors from the now vibrant North and East Asia. Whilst of course East Asia were funding US and European debt through their purchase of treasuries. The economic cycle continues unabated. The dollar has secured stability and continued as the world's reserve currency. China and Japan are by far the largest holders of US treasuries holding approximately $1 Trillion each a phenomenal amount of debt. Add to this Hong Kong and Taiwan who each have $200 Billion of treasuries, then China conceivably sits on $1.4 Trillion. That's if you subscribe to the 1949 civil war split, which of course you have to as it happened. Chiang Kai-shek, of the Nationalist Party, met with Communist leader Mao Tse-tung in the south-western city of Chongqing, following which the nationalist fled china and established a beachhead across the Taiwan strait.  China have never recognized the break away province and Taiwan have not declared independence.  You could of course argue which belongs to which but to argue two separate countries would perhaps be nebulous, they are akin to North and South Vietnam.  As for US treasuries it's fair to say that 55% of US debt is held by Asian countries, this is all before you consider Asian investment funds in US equity, Japan alone have a further $1 Trillion invested. 

Note: Japan remains Asia’s largest net foreign creditor with more than $3.5 trillion in overseas assets, but with China’s annual surpluses of $1 trillion and foreign exchange reserves of $3 trillion, China is expected to catch up with Japan by 2020. Together, Japan and China hold nearly $7 trillion in foreign assets across foreign currency reserves, portfolio investment, and direct investment. In terms of total FDI stock, China’s nearly $1.4 trillion ranks just ahead of Japan.

As you can see when I refer to this Century as Asia's Century, I not only mean growth belongs to Asia the Century is owned by them lock, stock and barrel, just as the 20th was owned by the US and the 19th was the Brits.

The west should be concerned if they are not willing to seek out new markets. The UK is absorbed in chasing Brexit aligning themselves with an economy that has never been proven, for this will be a handicap as we move through the next few years. 

Asian countries are reducing their desire for Western debt and have chosen instead to invest in Asia, in themselves.  Monies from richer economies are flowing to the South to what is Asia's new factory base Indonesia. Indonesia a country of 260M people with an average factory floor salary one third of China. Indonesia is predicted, by PWC to be the worlds 5th largest economy by 2030. It will have one of the world's largest modern militaries. Indonesia will be a powerful force that will influence policy not just for Asia.  Ignore it if you wish, as one commentator to my blog has said we should ignore this region to reduce our carbon foot print. It's difficult to argue when the logic flows on that level, yet we send our North sea shell fish to Thailand... read that story if you dare it's scary.... read here

Thank you once again for taking the time to read my disjointed ramblings. Any comments you have would be greatly appreciated. Please do follow me.  I try to update on a daily basis. 

Thank you Nigel Saywell-Lee.

Saturday, 30 March 2019

The Barons Are Back The Magna Carta Has Been Shredded

Why the surprise? It's blind arrogance when an MP displays shock, horror, calls his vote of no confidence a sabotage, a conspiracy by UKIP supporters. I am stunned by Dominic Grieve, I am stunned by his arrogance, I have been for a long period if I am honest. His vote count was Remain 20,077, Leave 20,642 with a turnout of 78.4%. I'm not sure how his maths stacks up but that puts him on the wrong side of democracy. As for Anna Sourby implying South Bucks could have no one better. Perhaps she is right if we were in the days of the Barons at the time of the Magna Carta. For sure his superiority, lauding it over democracy would fit in nicely.

I will not just single him out as their are over 400 MPs that sit on the wrong side of this, and I don't just mean leavers, I also have sympathy with remain constituents who have a leave representative. John Redwood comes to mind for he too is on the wrong side of his electorate. His constituents voted to remain his activities are a direct contrast.  

I used the term representative deliberately because that is what they are. They are not elected to be our masters, to provide demeaning language when referring to us so called well er., electorate. We are not the “dirty unwashed of society” we are worthy of respect. So please Mr Grieve save your indignation, you have failed your constituents and you have failed them spectacularly. Deselection will follow and if it doesn't then the conservatives will lose a seat. 

As for Anna Sourby who openly taunts her electorate. Her statements in the house demeaning her majority as not even on her radar, well that is contemptible,  it is misrepresentation of a sale for want of a better term. In business this is a serious violation, opening the individual to a lawsuit with considerable damages. 

In all honesty I fail to see how a constituency can elect a conservative member to be their representative, for that member to then resign from the conservatives and remain in their seat. Did the electorate waste their time voting? This is wrong, and it should be put right. 

Our Parliamentary system is profoundly broken. My guess it has been broken for years, but now their inadequacies, their self-serving interests, the abject contempt they hold those that they represent has risen to the surface of the swamp. 

I can imagine if the incredible hulk ran a party right now he would gain more seats than any incumbent. If Donald Trump were to be here I am sure he too would gain a majority. As would Nigel Farage for that should make you sit up and take note for that is a wave that's coming. I fail to see how they can not relate to the damage they have wrought on themselves and I don't just mean the Conservatives, but also Labour and where the hell are the Libs? The DUP are the only party who have remained consistent truly representing their electorate. We should seek the view of their NI electorate for sure it must be quite invigorating. 

I believe in the Union and I hope to god it prevails. But the sniping at the SNP this week, this is not only childish it's sinister. It sends the wrong message to the Scottish people. For sure Scotland have options, they too have a rich history, it would be sad to see them leave the union.

You had your laughs. But we’re not laughing with you! 

Do your job! Represent us, but keep your resume polished, although who in the real world who would trust you after this fiasco. 

Thank you once again for indulging my ramblings.  If you have comments, good or bad I would be pleased to see them, and will adopt my style accordingly.

Friday, 29 March 2019

Brexit - Please Let It End

In a spirit of Saturday this is written with a lighter tone, with relatable instances

When I woke up this morning I quickly opened the BBC news website to check the 3rd vote, I was relieved to hear it had failed again, but, as I read on, I saw she intends to bring it back a 4th time. Mrs May enough!! You're starting to behave like a rerun of Nick Clegg denying the EU army!

I have long been saying that this deal is a war time capitulation, a surrender document. I was pleased to hear Yanis Varoufakis make the same claim on Question Time Thursday last.

As, I showered I considered a time prior to 1973 when we joined the EU on a lie. Ted Heath hid the facts from Parliament as to the true intentions of the EU and how it was expected to evolve into this super state that we are seeing today. The Werner report had already been published the path was set, sovereignty would give way and monetary union would follow.  But, Ted a man whom I met in the early 80s and chatted to about of all things about the price of copper whilst we stood against the porcelain at The Waterside Inn in Bray near Maidenhead an elegant Michelin star restaurant adjoining the Thames

It wasn't until 1975, that the “Common Market's ” true intentions were revealed, hence the referendum backed up by the government pamphlet making clear as to the path we were on. But, by this time we were in.  It's important to remember the 70s.  The 70s were known as our darkest decade in peacetime. The days when unions controlled the agenda, with the likes of Red Robbo a man who orchestrated 523 strikes bringing to its knees 40% of all our manufacturing, ultimately paving the way for British Leyland’s demise. An unions agenda was clear during this period it was to bring the UK to its knees and pass it to their communist masters in the Soviet Union. So for sure the common sense position was always to stay with the EU.  But we should be mindful that in later years Mikeal Gorbachev’s quote “the EU is the Soviet Union in western clothes”.

Reflecting back to the days pre the EU, I remembered certain events by today's standard perhaps could not exist. A man would visit our doorstep perhaps three days of the week, he would drive a chocolate brown Morris 1000 van emblazoned across the side were gold lettering in Roman font ”Whitehorn Bakers”. I scurried to the door, my mum perhaps flirtatiously would greet him, I've added that bit but for sure she bought a lot from him the rapport was already secure, what did I care as long as she bought the cream horns! No plastic in sight, the bread came in a wax paper with sheet fold ends. 

This was an era like no other and it pre-dated the EU. We used to take the bread wrapper race to the local park and polish the slide with the wax content and then see how far we could shoot off the end of the slide. Good days for some reason I always remember them as sunny days, which of course could not have been the case. Our early EU years conversely I remember them as dark, cold, gloomy days as we huddled around an open fire during the many power cuts as we endured the 3-day week. We were more fortunate as coal was scarce, the miners had us on our knees my dad was able to purchase vast quantities as and when it was available.  The coal lorry loaded with black sacks, men would stagger into our coal shed with endless bags loaded on their backs protected by what was known as Donkey Jackets with a leather shoulder patch.

In short there was a life prior to the EU and by all accounts it was a good life. I'm not suggesting we will go back to sunny uplands, just that we really reflect on what the EU offers this modern world. It offers a story from the past. Mikael Gorbachev is correct in his assertion. The EU is an ideology with no new ideas. It is a collection of self-indulgent elites who are stifling great nations, destroying hope to millions across the Med. Sucking the life blood out of the economies of the richer nations. 

Look to how the world has evolved! The British Empire dominated the 19C. Americanisation the 20thC. The EU Century has not and will not happen. This Century belongs to Asia, here we have a form of cooperation, no ivory towers just a collective understanding. The Financial crisis of 2008 was not a global crisis as we like to refer to it.  It was a western crisis Asia have grown phenomenally since 2008. Read my blog here

They have grown through cooperation, they have each supported each other, investing in each other, and they have done this with a wave mentality respecting each others’ sovereignty. Not one drunken official amongst them. Not one treaty leading to some form of unification. When I try to get this point across I am always met with a parochial attitude, Asia is too far, we need to reduce our carbon foot print. Yet we use Asia as our manufacturer, we ship our North Sea shell fish to Thailand to be shelled (that's another story perhaps a read of my blog of that subject you would not eat another prawn). Read my blog here

I will leave this here today.  Again thank you for taking the time to read my ramblings!

Wednesday, 27 March 2019

Are we being fooled? Does our food have high levels of Mercury and Arsenic substance that the EU Condones

Be careful Mr Tusk. The Spinx like Daimajin will rise up to protect the 17.4M. Who are you to take their European citizenship away? Just because you and your cohorts have hijacked the future for millions across Europe it does not make the 17.4 Million in the UK any less European, our rights are inalienable.

Your persona is strange, a devout fighter of the Soviet doctrine yet you emerge in Europe intent on creating a Soviet Empire. Mr Tusk turn your attentions to your own continent under your watch we are seeing oppression in Catalonia and a brutal crushing of the Mouvement des gilets jaunes. The brutal pictures that we are seeing you could be forgiven for believing they are from the days of Soviet invasions, perhaps the streets of Prague in the 60s. To use your words; “often the ones beaten are in the right”. Hell belongs your domain Mr Tusk. You are a classic example of a person who leaves their country to escape their culture who then tries to set up that same culture you've escaped in your adopted country.

I will turn my attention today to the banking sector, for here we are full of, I guess a form of Sophism logic. I do not ever recall a head of state or a British Prime Minister refer to the banking sector as the enemy. Francois Hollande did just that, yet he espouses vitriol towards the British people showing his and Macron's desire to punish us with his attempts to pull the banking sector from London in order to harm the Great British people. Fooled we are not!

For many years the EU have been meddling in the affairs of the city, not least by Monsieur Barnier, as notes of meetings with Lord King will attest to. The EU have tried hard to influence, even control the affairs of the city. Since 2008 this campaign has intensified with regulation flowing from Brussels due to the Western Financial crisis (The west refer to this as the global financial crisis for me this is a misnomer as the Asia region marched on regardless).  REFER TO MY NOTE HERE.

In particular, four measures are likely to have a large impact on the City: restrictions on the over-the-counter derivatives market; the EU’s implementation of the so-called Basel 3 agreement, which imposes tougher requirements for capital and liquidity; caps on bankers’ bonuses; and the proposed financial transactions (Tobin) tax. The Tobin Tax named after James Tobin a Nobel prize winner for economics in 1972. It was his hope after the end of exchange rate controls (the Bretton Woods agreement in 1971) to throw sand in the wheels of currency speculation.  Again this tax gains momentum championed by France through the corridors of the EU. Ironically, both taxes will do little to quell the city appetite as they will just relocate to New York, Dubai, Hong Kong or Singapore. A loss for the whole of Europe!

Briefly I'll turn to remainers. I've noticed, for some time how remainers always espouse the term I. One comment l received yesterday, where a business owner raged about WTO paperwork, the complexity of it, although he admitted he'd only completed the paperwork once as his business is Europe. A business he owns that deals with Europe smoothly.  He also said if WTO was so easy why do countries push for Free Trade Agreements. 

I have written here to alert, to open discussion on the opportunity of the 21C, this is Asia's century.  But again the hostility I've received to the notion of flying over Europe to chase far off dreams seem to some, well mind boggling. There is a lot of substance here to cover, I will try to deal with this as I write below although some of the excuses appear shallow.  

  • First we are a community, we are not I or my business, we have a duty of care for each other. Perhaps if we did it will result in fewer employees knocking back anti depressants. 
  • Remainers seem to think that all trade with the EU will end March 30th, where does this come from? 
  • As for Free trade Agreements I think India have tried to negotiate with EU for eight years, and they, if they haven't already given up. 
  • WTO, it seems there is a belief that our options will always be; remain in the EU or be locked to WTO in perpetuity, again why? Will the EU not want to trade with their biggest market, admittedly when sanity prevails they I'm sure, will want a free trade agreement with the UK. After all a trade surplus exists. 
  • My final point; the excuse that Asia is too far I think is quite pathetic, one person used the argument that we must reduce our carbon footprint. Whilst I agree and I do hope they embrace electric cars. I do find such an attitude laudable as we not only holiday in Asia or Jamaica, St Lucia but we tuck into North Sea prawns with our surf and turf. Prawns that have been flown to Thailand, Vietnam to be shelled.

Shell Fish Pollution

On the subject of Prawns, I recently had dinner with a scientist from the EU. He alerted me of the risk that North Sea shell fish are travelling from rich waters  off the UK to be shelled in Asia.  They are being substituted by shell fish caught in waters in Asia with high mercury and arsenic content. I later asked Andrew Wilson from EU food sector this very question, he attempted to dismiss this notion as stupidity, as he does the views of Brexit leavers but he later guardedly admitted that yes it is a concern.

For today I will leave this blog here, thank you for reading.

Brexit - EU Tariffs just a few

Tuesday, 26 March 2019

Asia's Century A market of 5 Billion people have awoken.

Asian economies are in some way a dichotomy of what we would call in the west Capitalism versus nationalism. I'll explain but first I'll remind myself of a claim that my first boss made back in the days of Addressograph Multigraph my first employer, he said to me “For Communism or Capitalism to survive they both need to be present”.  I never understood the value of that statement until after the wall fell. The balance to Capitalism in the west became greed with ethics and morals largely cast aside. In Asia, you have a form of checks and balance that mirror those two ideologies. Once in discussion with senior Huaweii exec I referred to their communist balance, he quickly let me know that Communism is a past term and that a more modern name should be applied, although he didn't offer an alternative, but his indignation was felt.

In previous notes I have talked about Globalization and how Asia wants no part of this. I should qualify this; Asian economies have benefited from globalization there is no doubt, but they have stopped short of totally opening up.  Perhaps for several reasons in my view, 1. They have been on the losing side of colonization along with the brutal ills that that brought. 2. The currency crisis of 1998, major corporations were saddled with US debt which they struggled to balance. Many if not all did repay suppliers, loans etc. but it cost them their place in the market. There is no better example of this than Indonesia, two destined to be conglomerates one had the incumbent fixed telecom state owned network as its partner the other Nynex out of the US. One operator XL I would say at that time was progressive dynamic and inventive, the other Telkomsel more pragmatic, harnessed by tradition, due to the 98 financial crisis the balanced shifted in favour of Telkomsel. Today Telkomsel are 3 times bigger than their nearest competitor XL, in a country of 260M 1998 was a significant handicap to XL. Globalization was seen as a western benefit, as a result what we have today is savvy ministers who were able to take the advantage of globalization but spin on a sixpence so to speak as the 2008 financial crisis hit the west, opening the door to regionalism a tried and tested system of integrated trade ties established following 1998, save that of the wave activity which has been present for 50 years as referred here in a previous post. CLICK HERE!

The mix of ideologies following savvy economic policies have put this region as the frontrunner by a furlong to be the dominating party of the 21C. 19C was dominated by the British Empire, the 20th by America and the American dream. We now have an Asia dream and it really should not be missed.

That's not to say that Asia doesn't have its issues, for sure it does. But first be mindful; they are aware of the behaviour of the globalization actors, their aggressive push to build and retain superpower status. Their overtures in seeking free trade policy backed up by neo-mercantile policy. 

Asia have to come to terms with the need to rebalance their economies, to move the power base away from family conglomerates. Large parts of a country’s listed stocks are led from family run business. In Korea, they have a term chaebol which refers to family business conglomerate, they make up 50% of the Korean stock market. We all remember I'm sure the peanut issue on a Korean airline leaving New York, these are powerful families and as such are, in the case of Asia generally able to hold direction over a countries fortunes.  For that reason Asian economic ministers look to China as to the way they have handled this issue in order to spread the wealth creating more entrepreneurialism. In Indonesia large family conglomerates control major sectors such as construction, real estate, shipping, commodities trade, banking, and telecoms. The corporate pyramid remains narrow at the top, giving individuals enormous influence over policy. According to McKinsey, family businesses across the region have been growing at more than 20 percent per year over the past decade and using their strong cash positions to invest in joint ventures and new technology that raise the productivity of their home-based workers. Some might call this Confucian capitalism, recognizing the centrality of community, it is as Chinese as the notion of guanxi, or having privileged influence through networks. 

Corruption is a scourge across the world, it has more visibility across Asia only because the money is not flowing into the pockets of the west. In Asia, particularly Indonesia there is an anti corruption unit which has made great strides to reduce this burden, as with China many official have fallen, continuing to fall, they are being jailed by the 100s. Through pragmatism, good leadership and a realization as to the handicap this practise have on future growth prospect. 

Consider: In the west Competition is freely banded around as though it is the domain of western economies. But look at the banking sector. As one executive of a European bank put it, “In the US, American banks face little competition to service wealthy clients. In Europe, both European and American banks compete for the market. And in Asia, European, American, and Asian banks are all competing for wealthy customers. All our margins get squeezed, but at the same time it unlocks trillions of dollars of savings to be profitably invested.”

All of this is fascinating but the facts remain Asia will march forward in this Century. Americanism will give way just as Colonialism gave way. Stop it you can not, participate for sure you can!

Monday, 25 March 2019

Asia Networked For The Future.

As we the UK contemplate our navel, willingly break each other apart. Content for the EU over some ideological dream, to destroy hope for millions of Europeans as they fight to bring each other to the economic abyss. 

There is a whole new world emerging, taking shape, technology advanced, savvy, progressive, forming alliances and unions, cohesive partnerships that trade freely in a form of regional globalization. A part of the globe that has for over 50 years invested in a sociable manner to advance their neighbours fortunes.  I'm speaking of course of Asia North, South, East, West and Southeast. Not an ivory tower in sight, not one unelected bureaucrat in sight governing the collective. 

Growth has come through stability through neighbourly investment in waves as each has prospered. Wave 1 Japan and Korea funded the development for wave 2, China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan. Together they funded wave 3, South and Southeast Asia. 

The significance of all of this is; wave 1 brought 250M people to an economic, technology-driven wave 2 At the time a little over 1Billion entered the economic cycle of life. Wave 3 opens the way for 2.5Billion.  Not a regulation in sight, no ideology harnessing individual creativity, just good old economics. 

As America looked inward, Europe went about oppressing its citizens Asia pushed on achieving phenomenal growth 10 times that of the US, 70 times that of the Eurozone. PWC claim four of the top five global economies will be Asian all technology-driven, by 2030 they will be Asian economies. They also claim the UK will overtake Germany as Germany falls victim to the EU dogma.

Asia’s home to evolving modernized cities, networked, technology sophisticated, advanced trading hubs from Tokyo, Ho Chi Min, Shanghai, Manila and Jakarta. Sophisticated trading metropolis' advancing, progressing as the west declines through their ineptitude, self serving elitism, infighting. Of course then we have Trump's America. 

The regions are further enhanced by establishing regional hubs, economic zones bringing together Asia  all its extremities, interacting on a wholesale level for distribution of product in a speedy manner. Interim goods destined for finishing in the territory of another sovereign nation, this works so easily, no regulation, no hands tied.  Austerity should it be needed is a sovereign choice not dictated by some faceless masters striking a pen through a nations budgets as if he is deciding between a Margaux or Saint Émilion discarding a perfectly rounded Shiraz at a fraction of the cost.

One's youth is the responsibility of the nation, one’s salaries are paid as the market forces evolve, not squirrelled away by Corporate elites. 

Nine of the Ten busiest interconnecting flight connections worldwide are in Asia, only adding flights from Asia to New York, Toronto play their part in all ten. All across Asia, Asia is Asian the prominent investors are also the largest investors in Asia's success, as Wee Kee Hwee, Jaya Prakash Pradhan, Marie Cecilia Salta attest to in their book The Future Is Asian. India has investors from across Asia, Singapore leads the pack globally with a $14B per year investment. China has invested in Telecoms, Power plants, infrastructure and other areas. Asia helps Asia!

Funds in Beijing and Shanghai are sitting on tens of billions of dollars. They have been mandated to invest in their neighbour’s high-potential sectors from infrastructure and commodities to banks and telecoms. From Pakistan to the Philippines, China is laying down fiber-optic cables and setting up 5G mobile phone operators for giving data, communication access to hundreds of millions of people.

Many of the world’s biggest engineering, procurement, and construction companies are from Asia, they control substantial assets they are from China, South Korea, Japan, India, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia, and all of them want to build across Asia’s rugged extensive borders.

Look to the future. The future is Asian.

Statura.Co Legal, Translation and Visa's

Sunday, 24 March 2019

We are again at war! Our Prince cohort is Blair!

If there is not a cabinet coup soon there will not be a cabinet left to form a coup! The EU battle strategy, as foolish as it is, is to bring down the British government.  This ladies and Gentlemen is a terrible state of affairs. We are at war again with Europe!

As with previous wars we have a fifth column within our midst, we have the usual appeaser and we have a figure not in the shape of a Prince but more a wannabe demigod in Tony Blair.

Marches are organised people are brought in EU flags are waved,  one could be forgiven for mistaking London for Pyongyang. The biased organisation to allow such a march, not because they allowed the march but because they won't allow a Brexit march.

At least Neville Chamberlain had the good grace to stand aside.  Surrender we most probably will. As for us, apart from when we are called upon to support the elite the demigods we are not considered worthy of even thought let alone participation.

The EU carpets are wearing thin from all the footfall from UK MPs, another 16 last week. We are to be colonized by the Soviet Republic of the EU and they don't even have an army. Not one shot will be fired, but the casualties are vast. The ordinary folk of middle England are at risk, jobs at distribution centres up and down the country will fall to the closed shops from the eastern countries.  Now I realise this blog has an international follow so I will be clear on this subject. I have no issue with employment from any creed. Indeed I have employed 100s from various Asian countries. What I have an issue with is when an ethnicity attempt to ring fence, push out other ethnicities. These are types of Unions that we should all look on in disgust. What I also have an issue with is our laws are designed to be used against us!

I have used taxi's from ranks where I have openly heard that the rank is vehemently, solely the domain of Pakistan! I have arrived at Heathrow late at night and been driven to Winchester by a taxi driver who used the M3 lane lines to guide his car, straddling two lanes. When asked how long he had been here his reply was that morning. I realise this is not an EU issue. To be clear, I have always believed our immigration issues are the result of do gooder policies, it is those that have prevented integration. The EU is not so much to blame, although opening the doors to the east has exasperated the situation. Mrs Merkel opening up to other Arab states and South Asia without checking refugee status has caused great harm, benefited German Industry only; Not its people nor other Europeans. Mrs Merkel the med has more than enough to flood your factories, keeping a lid on German salaries.

Brexit is right, the EU for its own sake needs a wakeup call, it is failing itself, its citizen and soon will be spent force in the world of economics. Since 2008 it has the poorest growth of any block, four times less than its nearest competitor. Ten times less than Asia, seven times less than the US or even Canada.

Its people are in shock many are unemployed. Once a great country that gave us Philosophers and excellent life skills from the 6thC BC reduced to an economic ruin that could mirror the Parthenon Acropolis as a comparison to something tangible but less visible. Why because of the Euro ideology and the poor behaviour from the cold uncaring EU elites.

Mrs May Great Britain is worth more than this.  Do you really want your legacy to echo that of Maduro another leader who will not leave for the sake of his country. I understand when it is the government that want you to leave but it isn't it is the people that want you to step aside. So step aside this is not purgatory. If a new leader takes control your only sin is stubborn egotism. If you stay you will bring UK PLC into a black regulatory abyss, The Hotel California of Europe. Step aside you tried your best, but your opponents were formidable and mostly from your ranks.

I have a question; is it normal for past Prime Minister to retain their office undermining the incumbent to the extent that Blair is doing? Is it normal for a past PM to diminish that standing of an elected PM? Is it normal for a past Leader of Great Britain to cohort with what is now by their definition, the enemy.

The EU is the Soviet Union in western clothes, to use MIKAEL GORBACHEV quote.

Asia For The Opportunity

Saturday, 23 March 2019

Is Blair behind this Mayhem?

Today I would have liked to write for my day job, to support UK or indeed any countries desire to focus on the burgeoning opportunity that is Indonesia.  But I have to comment on the UK's situation.

But! What on earth is going on in the UK? Petitions reaching 4M signatures, many are fake. Marching through London the privilege afforded only to remainers. This March gathered 1M participants, is that real? Who are the organizers? Is it the EU as is reported in some papers? And, why are they allowed to be represented and not leavers?

This is all irresponsible. One, to accept one side and not another, two, to allow foreign powers to again meddle in our country. 

Under Mrs May, government has become nothing more than an idiom a place where the appearance of government governs. A place of sanctuary for all that is wrong in our society, elitism, profiteering, self invested individual where they can ponder their individual futures. 

This country has a rich past, a history of producing great leaders, particularly at times of chaos. Leaders who are able to take control lead us through this maze, leaders who would not tolerate interference from abroad. 

Names such as David Lloyd George, a man of great stature who stood by his principles even if those principles nearly gave cause for him to be lynched. Then we have Winston Churchill who always stood for what he believed a great visionary, carrying the people with him. Of course Margaret Thatcher who courageously stood against the communist inspired unions, hell-bent on carrying us toward the Soviet Empire.  We must and, I hope we are grooming another Margaret Thatcher for sure May's ineptitude, stubborn egotistical behaviour will lead us to another historic period of debt and anarchy on the streets of our cities. In the industrial heartlands they will be laid bare by strikes and poverty. We'll limp again to the IMF for funds to move us back into a semblance of order in an attempt to mirror the great nation we once were! 

Never has our period in history been so confusing, nor has it ever been undermined in such an overt fashion.  By leaders past and present. No previous Leader save that of Cameron would have stood by and watched her authority diminished by a past Prime Minster. If this march is as I suspect it is organised at the hands of Blair and his EU cohorts, then shame on you Mrs May.  

I am not for another referendum but I'm not scared of another referendum.  The EU is a failing project, it has failed the young across the Med. It has incarcerated whole economies in the guise of that ideological project the EURO. German industry have been the sole beneficiaries, using immigration to control their own peoples poor salaries. In 10 years German workers have enjoyed half of the pay increases afforded to Finnish workers. 

For 10 years the EU Eurozone have been the lame duck of the world achieving a growth a quarter that of the UK, whilst destroying one of the ancient cultures which have led to modern day life, Greece. Greece a country of great philosophers, seafaring traders from as far back as 500BC, have seen their economy shrink by 27%.

Today we have Brexit, Italy has moved to the right, openly defying their drunken EU masters by embracing China and its Belt and Road scheme. Holland's regional election have fired yet another warning shot across the bow of the EU fortress they too are in search of independence. Monsieur Macron a man I have zero tolerance for, has openly said if France had a referendum they too would vote leave. A man whose judiciary forces Marine Le Pen to undergo psychiatric evaluation for highlighting the atrocities of ISIS.  

I strongly urge the UK to leave and then look to the Asia system of networked countries. How they collectively supported each other as each have transited into a vast economic power house as we see today. Read my Three Wave blog it is refreshing, enlightening even inspiring. With not a drunken leader in sight. Click here

We need May to step aside for the sake of Great Britain or I fear it will be torn limb from limb before these attempts to undermine and subvert democracy bring a damaged end.

Friday, 22 March 2019

Brexit and the "Wolfie Smith" of Politics

Today I have a compilation, as it's Saturday it has a lighter tone, forgive my attempt at humour the subjects are no less serious..

Confusion reigns supreme. I am pleased to have heard that the government are running a tv campaign to advise on leaving March the 29th, it would mean someone somewhere have taken initiative.  But, I'm confused and I don't know quite what I missed. I read today that Mrs May will pull next weeks vote if there is no support. Well, I am under the impression that Bercow scuppered the vote as there are no meaningful changes. The only way to bypass, is to change the deal remove the backstop or close this parliamentary session. Which our dear Queen would have to do, but I am sure Her Majesty is aware the last time a monarch took such an initiative was Charles the 1st, his head and body were buried separately! 

So in short what has changed?

I am also very confused by Corbyn.  We are in governmental crisis (although I sincerely believe, as the campaign shows that all will be ok) yet Corbyn calls for another referendum minutes after abstaining on a vote that would have paved a way to new vote.  I'm in awe (tongue in cheek) of this government and this parliament. At what seems parliaments the darkest moment when we the Great British plebiscites expect unity from our MPs. He, Corbyn attends a meeting only to then throw his toys around like a two-year old in the chocolate section of Sainsbury’s, why? Because Chuka Umuna attended!

You really could not make this up.  John Sullivan god rest his soul, could maybe have written a sit-com from this, one that rivalled “Only Fools and Horses”. Which brings me nicely to my next point or suggestion: Given the shenanigans of the last few years, the tantrums in parliament isles, the jeers from the benches, the misrepresentation’s of the manifesto, the obstinate way our MPs have cavalierly disregarded their employers wishes. Should we now consider parliament as a soap opera put it on ITV place adverts and remove 600 salaries from our taxes. I'm sure Robert Goodwill MP would agree there would be more opportunities to play with expenses without so much public scrutiny.

I jest, or do I. It's amazing despite our Parliaments the best efforts, Corporate UK continues and continues to out-perform. Record employment, less unemployment, record inward investment 2nd best in the world, 2nd only to China, here's the rub European Union corporations are investing in the UK at a faster rate than in previous years. All of this at a time when our Parliament behave like petulant children.

We have Monsieur Macron from the steps of Downing Street call for all British industry to relocate to France, calling for the city to consider Paris for their future global business, as if that would happen. What a rude dis-courteous man. I believe France for their own sake need to reform, but out of protest to this clown I will don a yellow vest, if only theoretically.  

To return to “Wolfie Smith” Corbyn, also written by John Sullivan, I'm only now beginning to realize how much we have lost due to John's untimely death. Corbyn just continues to muddle on, espousing tried and disastrous policies. Policies that ushered in 3 day weeks, power outages, only three days of TV per week.  Did we never have Maggie Thatcher who sorted out the last mess. Corbyn please go join your comrades on a beach in OZ. I realize “Red Robbo” is no longer with us but at least his last 30 years were spent in the sun. The man who orchestrated 523 strikes which eventually toppled British Leyland. For those who are not aware British Leyland represented 40% of the UK manufacturing output. They were unrivalled in their early years as the premier mass producer of family cars. It was a travesty that this man was able to organize so many strikes which ultimately destroyed Leyland, to the pleasure of his Russian paymasters I'm sure. Now there's a similarity!

The last two years have shown that the government are like traffic cops the roads flow better when they are not there.

Leave March 29th March 30th will look and feel the same except we'll be £39 billion better off.

Thursday, 21 March 2019

Brexit passporting rights. Another myth.

The City of London or better the Financial centre have for a long period faced a pull on their business from the Eurozone to the Eurozone. The EU has always had a dislike of the UK financial power and have tried unsuccessfully to shift Euro clearing to Paris, Frankfurt or even Dublin.

Christian Noyer, the former Governor of the Banque de France, said: ‘No other sovereign or monetary zone would allow itself to rely on an offshore centre.’ 

Again, really, all I can say is he doesn't get out much. Throughout the world there are very few opportunities to clear ones currencies nearly all rely on another jurisdiction for their financial transactions. Even the US who have a Financial hub many of their transaction take place outside of New York, in London or Japan.

There is a vast amount of euro trade that takes place in London on a daily basis, that is correct, but, monetary policy is set in Frankfurt by the European Central Bank “ECB”. Therefore, the European banks, the Eurozone authorities have full control over policy, plus the activities of their banks. They can easily and unilaterally set their own capital requirements and regulate until their heart's content, or as a cynic would say until they've killed their markets.

There is a fundamental flaw in the authorities push to gain control in a Eurozone capital, it's quite simple the financial institutions do not want to move, not under any circumstances. Why? Because, they are deeply suspicious that the Eurozone will stifle their market by regulating them into the abyss. To use a Nigel Farage quote “Why would they be the turkey that voted for Christmas”.

Passporting rights

Here there is an issue which is potentially serious, which has surfaced due to Brexit the passporting rights. These allow institution to operate in each other's territory without an operation established in that country. London currently can operate throughout the EU where a Swiss financial institution can not, they have to set up a subsidiary in an EU member country. Currently America, Switzerland, indeed any bank outside of the EU have chosen to set up in London in order to access thes EU markets. This may change, I use the term may as we still hope common sense prevails. But, foresure with or without Brexit the Eurozone wanted to move their finances from London.

In order to establish a subsidiary, which incidentally would apply to British banks who will operate in the Eurozone. They need substantial dedicated capital which of course is dead money, an anathema to a Financial institution. It would also mean two financial centres so of course there is a concern as to why operate two centres just move to the Eurozone. However, consider my point above re; the abyss, analyse the percentage of Euro business together with all the city's business; A recent report by Oliver Wyman put the percentage of the City’s international and wholesale banking business that is EU-related at between 20% and 25% of the total. The full report can be read here

In reality, if the financial institutions stood their ground. Primarily if you consider the loss of business to the city would be painful, perhaps not as painful as 20%. But, conversely the impact on the Eurozone would be hugely disruptive even chaotic. Of course, one considers one's options, assuming a continuum: stay entirely or relocate entirely, with many shades of grey along the way. Here one hopes for an adult discussion after which a logical win win would result, the operative word being adults in this situation, so far we've seen the reverse. One possible way round the passporting problem lies in the so-called ‘equivalence’ provisions for non-EU countries, which allow them to export financial services to the EU without passports. Under such arrangements, UK regulations would not need to be the same as the EU’s but rather they would need to be ‘equivalent’.

The future is not Europe, particularly under this EU authoritarian regime,. They have demonstrated how their single focus on ideology has destroyed the futures of many under 25s. Their growth since 2008 is pathetic; 15% that of the US and a quarter of the UK! They have not proved themselves of being worthy financial custodians. It's not only about them they have an impact globally.

Leave on the 29th

Brexit - What Appalling Treatment Boycott French Wine and German Cars


Why doesn't Barnier come to the UK and put a gun to Mrs May's head.  We are a nuclear power, with a formidable army. We have the worlds financial capital within our borders. The UK imports €90 Billion more than we sell to the EU. Europe is in recession. The Med is in depression.

Is it right that such a power with such a trade imbalance should be held at gun point such that we are? What sovereign nation would agree to this withdrawal agreement giving up our rights, succumbing to an unelected foreign chamber of bureaucrats who would control our destiny with or without our agreement, this surrender would be high treason. Only a war time leader upon surrender would agree to such capitulation. Mrs May should be held to account for pushing this deal forward. 

The ramifications of this situation will haunt the UK for decades. Every French bottle of wine we have bought every German car that we have driven will be replaced with cars from Jaguar, Ford, Chevrolet, wine from Australia and the new world.  Macron for sure would be persona non grata on British soil.


The Blairites who have orchestrated this situation should be locked in the tower and die in the tower, their betrayal has been extreme, comparable to Blunt, Philby and Burgess. 

For god’s sake wake up we are a power in a world of minnows and sharks. We are surrounded by those that wish us harm.  We have to our South rhetoric coming out of Turkey exploiting the New Zealand atrocity as though it is a Caucasian conspiracy. I won't even dignify it with the religious connotations. Russia led by a despot intent on creating mayhem on whoever's streets he feels able.

The Euro is an ideology, Hitler was an ideology (barbaric to the extreme), we are treated to contempt by authoritarian ideologists. We didn't surrender in 1945 why is Mrs May surrendering now!

The EU is doomed, this negotiation has shown it for what it is incompetent, drunken, self-interested individuals who have no responsibility for the people they represent, if they did the Med under 25s would have more hope.

Monsieur Macron

Let me ask, our situation Monsieur Macron "there for the grace of god go you" do you think we would have supported the EU in your humiliation such as you are with us? Mr Macron your speech on the steps of Downing Street were rude and offensive, your covert meetings with Blair to undermine our democracy equally so! Let me help you with the answer NO WE WOULD NOT! Sort your own mess out don't meddle in ours, try and behave like a grown up President!

Where are the €Billions missing in the accounts Mr Junker? Step aside put someone in who can treat us with dignity and respect, recognize that we will continue to be neighbours, the memory of this will blight our relationship for many years to come. 

Wednesday, 20 March 2019

Trump's Naughty List Drives Asia Growth

Trump's cross hairs, there's a pun but not intended. China, South Korea and India on Trump's naughty list it's not difficult to see who the beneficiaries are: For sure Indonesia but not just Indonesia, Vietnam has benefited. Asia have redoubled their efforts to increase trade and trade relationships, 28 from 44 FTAs “Free Trade Agreements” proposed are between Asian nation states. Cohesive active even pro-active dyads, trade relationships have grown significantly since the global crisis, weathered, even ignored the Trump doctrine, this is set to only improve further.

I bring you back to an earlier note of mine, one where I talk about Asia's third wave, it's worth a read, click here. The other where I cover PWC, their forecast for the World Economic growth, in a few short years PWC claim on a measure of GDP that 4 of the top 5 countries will be Asia. China, USA, Japan, India and Indonesia.

Two situations are emerging, in reality they are already upon us. One technology is no longer the domain of the USA, perhaps it's too early to write  the US off, for innovation or R&D. For several decades North Asia has maintained the industrial mantle for mass production with labour split between Japan, South Korea and China adding Taiwan and Hong Kong at a later stage.  From these five countries they account for $4.2 Trillion Asian exports, this is equivalent to North America, the European Union combined.

In the year 2000 China represented less than 10% of Asia's technology exports, today 44%. Huawei, Lenovo, Haier, and BYD Automobile Company all rank ahead of their Asian peers and Western rivals in categories such as telecom equipment, laptops, appliances, and electric cars. But of course their manufacturing links are all highly integrated as China relies on South Korea and Japan for their semi-conductors.

What Asia is aware of, their markets were once primarily the West this is no longer the case, their markets today are other Asian countries. Hence, the dawning of an age in shifting manufacturing to the south productivity grew, whilst opening new markets to export too. 

Cost of labour to the north has increased as has the cost of living. I've mention in an earlier document that average daily rate on the manufacturing shop floor is $30, Indonesia and Vietnam are still able to maintain $10 per day, with a substantial workforce, a median age below 30.

Indonesia has vast Industrial parks one of which can be seen in the image above. Companies from the west such as Siemens, ABB are already established, but, also from Asia Foxconn, JVC, Omron etc.  Pegatron will invest $300M opening a 2 hectare manufacturing plant in just one of Indonesia's industrial zones. Foxconn and Pegatron manufacture in excess of 80% of the world's iPhones. Hyundai announced in Dec 2018 plans to move electric car manufacturing to Indonesia with an investment of $800M. Hyundai anticipate 53% of their cars will head to Asia and Australia, the remainder serving the Indonesian domestic market. Not to be out done VW will build the Tiguan in Indonesia with a €50M investment.

Japan since the 1970s have invested in Southeast Asia but in recent years has increased its investment to $20billion, they are looking to manufacture Nissan electric and flexfuel (Ethanol and other biofuel) vehicles. 

I reaffirm the west should look to join their compatriots, explore the possibilities of cheaper markets for manufacture. Positioning for a burgeoning middle class able to consume at the rate that a westerner used to be able to. 
Since 2014, US, European, and even Chinese companies have outsourced to Asian nations, Japan and South Korea have led the way in moving manufacturing to this region. South East Asia has attracted more annual investment than China.  Asian’s total annual trade amounts to nearly $2.2 trillion, one-quarter of which is within Asian, 15 percent with China, and 10 percent with Japan.

Since the Asian-China Free Trade Area (ACFTA) established in 2000 this created by population (combined population of 2.5 billion people) the largest free-trade agreement in the world, South East and East Asia has become China’s third largest trading partner with $400 billion in annual trade. Don't be surprised if Asia displaces Europe and North America as the primary destination for Asia exports.

Whilst Europe squabbles over regulation and authoritarianism Asia is racing ahead. 

Can you afford to miss Indonesia in the 21C.

Featured post

The Barons Are Back The Magna Carta Has Been Shredded

Why the surprise? It's blind arrogance when an MP displays shock, horror, calls his vote of no confidence a sabotage, a conspiracy...

Popular Posts