Showing posts with label EC EUROPEAN COMMISSION. Show all posts
Showing posts with label EC EUROPEAN COMMISSION. Show all posts

Monday, 22 April 2019

We must decouple from the European Union and not enter the backstop



The UK has lots of advantages and if they are used cleverly to decouple from the EU, as well as the new freedom in a good bilateral relationship, then the UK could develop very positively – I’m convinced of that.  Read here

Ueli Maurer Swiss Finance Minister FT 26 March 2017

We must decouple from the European Union


In 2016, we were faced with an extreme version of project fear. Such claims that if we broke from the European union's iron grip then we would indeed face dire consequences. Such consequences would immediately be felt by way of half a million job losses. But, another claim that has not come to fruition, which today has been swept under the carpet so to speak that is FDI “Foreign Direct Investment”, it was claimed that FDI would dry up plunging the UK into a form of Banana republic. 




Here we are in 2019, having enjoyed the best employment rates on record, jobs have grown significantly. Almost daily there is positive news, even this week a headline read that all job vacancies since the referendum have been filled by British Nationals. Now for the papers to print such a headline would be deemed racist, but, is it? How can it be, as the UK is already a cosmopolitan, eclectic mix. Nevertheless, the headline makes good reading, in part vindicates leaving the European Union's iron grip. Of course in addition the headline employment rate makes a compelling story also in support of vote leave.

Foreign Direct Investment "FDI"


Foreign Direct Investment “FDI” not only did it not dry up, investment  have quadrupled coming from across the world. But here's the catch and this should embarrass remainers: we have had record investment since the referendum! Last year our Foreign Investment was second only to China, passing the FDI into the USA. Bizarre as tbis will seem European Union conglomerates are placing investments in the UK looking for a better future. With such a raft of good news why do we still have these daily battles with remain and Theresa May? 

The Japanese perhaps were always seen as the biggest risk to our financial well-being. But, apart from headline grabbing statements exploited by the media this has been no more than an irritant played out to sell newspapers, metaphorically speaking. 

Yes it's true Japanese have over the years invested in the UK to access the European market, but tariffs are not the only reason the Japanese are here.  The UK has a great climate for manufacture which is interference free, a stable environment. Even with the Parliament shenaniggans this continues to be the case. 




The Japanese are not known for their astute interpretation of all things European. In the late 1990s they predicted with equal vigor gloom, despair, almost apocalyptic if we were to snub the Euro. Of course that was not the case. To continue with this "orchestrated" despair we hear noise from French conglomerates, German conglomerates such as BMW who all claim in somehow unison, they predict the worst for their businesses that are in the UK. Of course one assumes there was no political pressure brought to bear on them to make such statements. But, since we seem to be enjoying a boom period. Our economy has outperformed even the stellar German economy within the Eurozone, which we all know is heading for recession.

Free Trade Agreements

It is absurd to assume that we the UK would collapse as an economy even if we end up with a situation of paying tariffs to enter the European markets. This is simply not true! For one, we run a surplus, we sell to European Union two-thirds of our product to that of the European Union products sold to the UK, in real terms, per year we run a £90 Billion deficit. Seriously can Germany walk away from that. On a second point, there are 100s of countries who sell to the EU on WTO including the USA, weakening the argument further Japan also sells product from Japan into the EU with little or no issues. So why is WTO so onerous a prospect? Why do we assume that when entering on WTO we remain on WTO. Rationally, negotiating a Free Trade Agreement can this not be the adult way forward?

When you analyse the-remain argument there really is so little of substance to their points, apart from the term MY! It is always about them and not the collective. Their supply chains, their holidays, their future. Indeed, their arguments are so weak they always resort to insults, such as:




We are Xenophobic, little Englanders, low caste (if such a thing exists). All I can say to that is; many in a number of constituencies with large South Asian populations they delivered Leave votes, including Luton (56.5% Leave), Hillingdon (56.4% Leave), Slough (54.3% Leave) and Bradford (54.2% Leave). All have South Asian populations of 25% and above. It’s not unreasonable to think that such Leave votes could not have been delivered without a significant number of Asian voters opting for Brexit. Read here






The UK has lots of advantages and if they are used cleverly to decouple from the EU, as well as the new freedom in a good bilateral relationship, then the UK could develop very positively – I’m convinced of that.  Read here

Ueli Maurer Swiss Finance Minister FT 26 March 2017

We must decouple from the European Union


In 2016, we were faced with an extreme version of project fear. Such claims that if we broke from the European union's iron grip then we would indeed face dire consequences. Such consequences would immediately be felt by way of half a million job losses. But, another claim that has not come to fruition, which today has been swept under the carpet so to speak that is FDI “Foreign Direct Investment”, it was claimed that FDI would dry up plunging the UK into a form of Banana republic. 




Here we are in 2019, having enjoyed the best employment rates on record, jobs have grown significantly. Almost daily there is positive news, even this week a headline read that all job vacancies since the referendum have been filled by British Nationals. Now for the papers to print such a headline would be deemed racist, but, is it? How can it be, as the UK is already a cosmopolitan, eclectic mix. Nevertheless, the headline makes good reading, in part vindicates leaving the European Union's iron grip. Of course in addition the headline employment rate makes a compelling story also in support of vote leave.

Foreign Direct Investment "FDI"


Foreign Direct Investment “FDI” not only did it not dry up, investment  have quadrupled coming from across the world. But here's the catch and this should embarrass remainers: we have had record investment since the referendum! Last year our Foreign Investment was second only to China, passing the FDI into the USA. Bizarre as tbis will seem European Union conglomerates are placing investments in the UK looking for a better future. With such a raft of good news why do we still have these daily battles with remain and Theresa May? 

The Japanese perhaps were always seen as the biggest risk to our financial well-being. But, apart from headline grabbing statements exploited by the media this has been no more than an irritant played out to sell newspapers, metaphorically speaking. 

Yes it's true Japanese have over the years invested in the UK to access the European market, but tariffs are not the only reason the Japanese are here.  The UK has a great climate for manufacture which is interference free, a stable environment. Even with the Parliament shenaniggans this continues to be the case. 




The Japanese are not known for their astute interpretation of all things European. In the late 1990s they predicted with equal vigor gloom, despair, almost apocalyptic if we were to snub the Euro. Of course that was not the case. To continue with this "orchestrated" despair we hear noise from French conglomerates, German conglomerates such as BMW who all claim in somehow unison, they predict the worst for their businesses that are in the UK. Of course one assumes there was no political pressure brought to bear on them to make such statements. But, since we seem to be enjoying a boom period. Our economy has outperformed even the stellar German economy within the Eurozone, which we all know is heading for recession.

Free Trade Agreements

It is absurd to assume that we the UK would collapse as an economy even if we end up with a situation of paying tariffs to enter the European markets. This is simply not true! For one, we run a surplus, we sell to European Union two-thirds of our product to that of the European Union products sold to the UK, in real terms, per year we run a £90 Billion deficit. Seriously can Germany walk away from that. On a second point, there are 100s of countries who sell to the EU on WTO including the USA, weakening the argument further Japan also sells product from Japan into the EU with little or no issues. So why is WTO so onerous a prospect? Why do we assume that when entering on WTO we remain on WTO. Rationally, negotiating a Free Trade Agreement can this not be the adult way forward?

When you analyse the-remain argument there really is so little of substance to their points, apart from the term MY! It is always about them and not the collective. Their supply chains, their holidays, their future. Indeed, their arguments are so weak they always resort to insults, such as:




We are Xenophobic, little Englanders, low caste (if such a thing exists). All I can say to that is; many in a number of constituencies with large South Asian populations they delivered Leave votes, including Luton (56.5% Leave), Hillingdon (56.4% Leave), Slough (54.3% Leave) and Bradford (54.2% Leave). All have South Asian populations of 25% and above. It’s not unreasonable to think that such Leave votes could not have been delivered without a significant number of Asian voters opting for Brexit. Read here




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Tuesday, 16 April 2019

The walter Mitty of Parliament David Lammy









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Tuesday, 9 April 2019

Manufacturing and Germany's Conundrum.




Having read today that we will likely stay within the confines of the EU regulatory network for perhaps another year. That's provided we take Benzodiazepines or some other form of bad boy behavioural suppressant, in order that we do not disrupt the day to day business. For me when dissenting voices such as Marine LePen are ordered to undergo psychiatric assessment. Now we are told to pay up and shut up. One has to ask is Mikael Gorbachev correct in his statement “The European Union is the Soviet Union in Western Clothes?”

Impacts on Manufacturing


Most notably the car Industry.  The UK exports of cars and parts is equal to 12% of our GDP of which half of that heads to the EU. But, this is not the whole story, the UK imports far more from the EU by way of cars and car parts than we export to them, only with the rest of the world we have a surplus. 

The car industry is dominated by oversupply, which means prices are already under pressure. It is also important to note that the UK is 13th on the list of countries that are car manufacturers, it may also come as a surprise Germany is 3rd, after China and Japan, followed by Korea, India, the United States, Brazil, France, Spain, Russia, Mexico, Iran – and the UK, which is in thirteenth place.

Car companies have for a long time been shifting their manufacturing capacity to emerging markets. If you read my blogs about Asia you will know that Indonesia offers shop floor workers at a third of the price of China for example. Given the glut of manufacturing, the pressure on prices it's no surprise if some of our manufacturing shifts. This will depend on two areas. 1) The EU look to devastate the German car Industry by making UK exports to the EU more difficult which in turn impacts German manufacturers as the UK is their largest market. This would be folly! 2) The whim of the manufacturers and their desire to use Brexit as the reason to get their bad news out. Much like Jo Moore as she pushed the then labour transport minister to publish councillors excessive expenses during the 911 terrorist attack. That's perhaps an extreme analogy but I'm sure you understand where I'm coming from.

In terms of our relationship with German car manufacturers there has been talk of an FTA to ensure German jobs are protected. If the EU continue on this path then my guess the German government will break ranks with a bilateral agreement, this is too important a lobby group from German industry to allow the bureaucrats a free ideological reign, particularly as a recession looms.

If no agreement comes then the UK will face “Common External Tariff”, 10% on cars and 5% on components. That would present an interesting conundrum for Germany should the UK apply the same rules, given we run a car industry deficit. For sure this would devastate Mercedes, BMW, VW etc. at a time when German manufacturing are squeezed by recession. Such tit-for-tat measures would be foolish for both sides. The UK needs to be open to import from the ROW, under WTO we can not remove tariffs from one WTO supplier and apply them to another. The UK needs to buy more cheaply to start the benefits of leaving the EU. However, at a consumer level it could easily be seen that a boycott could emerge should Germany or the EU slap CET tariffs.

Of course, I relate only one side of the argument the tariffs and free flow of cars and parts. But the other side perhaps equally important is the supply chains. Supply chains that our manufactures rely on, “just in time manufacturing” here could well be an issue, tariffs at borders, extra paperwork, slower movement etc. But, even here we have a “silver lining” as in such a scenario this would form the catalyst for manufacturing to rise within our shores, supply chains could be homegrown.  A renaissance; like a phoenix rising from the 70s ashes.

The automobile industry due to its size is a special case  but there is a wider issue. It has been argued that once the UK leaves the EU, particularly if it follows a policy of zero tariffs on imports from the rest of the world as well as the EU, the doomsayers claim its other manufacturing  sector would be hit heavily. It has even been suggested that the UK’s manufacturing sector could collapse, project fear perhaps. In fact, there are no reasons why UK manufacturing cannot thrive after Brexit, even after a declaration of unilateral free trade (UFT). However, it is important to note that UK manufacturers are enjoying a bonanza with the pound depreciation. Even if, tariffs are applied across the EU these have been more than offset by the pound's depreciation.

Thank you once again for reading my ramblings, if you have comments or wish to add or contradict this story please comment below. Thanks!




Having read today that we will likely stay within the confines of the EU regulatory network for perhaps another year. That's provided we take Benzodiazepines or some other form of bad boy behavioural suppressant, in order that we do not disrupt the day to day business. For me when dissenting voices such as Marine LePen are ordered to undergo psychiatric assessment. Now we are told to pay up and shut up. One has to ask is Mikael Gorbachev correct in his statement “The European Union is the Soviet Union in Western Clothes?”

Impacts on Manufacturing


Most notably the car Industry.  The UK exports of cars and parts is equal to 12% of our GDP of which half of that heads to the EU. But, this is not the whole story, the UK imports far more from the EU by way of cars and car parts than we export to them, only with the rest of the world we have a surplus. 

The car industry is dominated by oversupply, which means prices are already under pressure. It is also important to note that the UK is 13th on the list of countries that are car manufacturers, it may also come as a surprise Germany is 3rd, after China and Japan, followed by Korea, India, the United States, Brazil, France, Spain, Russia, Mexico, Iran – and the UK, which is in thirteenth place.

Car companies have for a long time been shifting their manufacturing capacity to emerging markets. If you read my blogs about Asia you will know that Indonesia offers shop floor workers at a third of the price of China for example. Given the glut of manufacturing, the pressure on prices it's no surprise if some of our manufacturing shifts. This will depend on two areas. 1) The EU look to devastate the German car Industry by making UK exports to the EU more difficult which in turn impacts German manufacturers as the UK is their largest market. This would be folly! 2) The whim of the manufacturers and their desire to use Brexit as the reason to get their bad news out. Much like Jo Moore as she pushed the then labour transport minister to publish councillors excessive expenses during the 911 terrorist attack. That's perhaps an extreme analogy but I'm sure you understand where I'm coming from.

In terms of our relationship with German car manufacturers there has been talk of an FTA to ensure German jobs are protected. If the EU continue on this path then my guess the German government will break ranks with a bilateral agreement, this is too important a lobby group from German industry to allow the bureaucrats a free ideological reign, particularly as a recession looms.

If no agreement comes then the UK will face “Common External Tariff”, 10% on cars and 5% on components. That would present an interesting conundrum for Germany should the UK apply the same rules, given we run a car industry deficit. For sure this would devastate Mercedes, BMW, VW etc. at a time when German manufacturing are squeezed by recession. Such tit-for-tat measures would be foolish for both sides. The UK needs to be open to import from the ROW, under WTO we can not remove tariffs from one WTO supplier and apply them to another. The UK needs to buy more cheaply to start the benefits of leaving the EU. However, at a consumer level it could easily be seen that a boycott could emerge should Germany or the EU slap CET tariffs.

Of course, I relate only one side of the argument the tariffs and free flow of cars and parts. But the other side perhaps equally important is the supply chains. Supply chains that our manufactures rely on, “just in time manufacturing” here could well be an issue, tariffs at borders, extra paperwork, slower movement etc. But, even here we have a “silver lining” as in such a scenario this would form the catalyst for manufacturing to rise within our shores, supply chains could be homegrown.  A renaissance; like a phoenix rising from the 70s ashes.

The automobile industry due to its size is a special case  but there is a wider issue. It has been argued that once the UK leaves the EU, particularly if it follows a policy of zero tariffs on imports from the rest of the world as well as the EU, the doomsayers claim its other manufacturing  sector would be hit heavily. It has even been suggested that the UK’s manufacturing sector could collapse, project fear perhaps. In fact, there are no reasons why UK manufacturing cannot thrive after Brexit, even after a declaration of unilateral free trade (UFT). However, it is important to note that UK manufacturers are enjoying a bonanza with the pound depreciation. Even if, tariffs are applied across the EU these have been more than offset by the pound's depreciation.

Thank you once again for reading my ramblings, if you have comments or wish to add or contradict this story please comment below. Thanks!

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Friday, 29 March 2019

Brexit - Please Let It End



In a spirit of Saturday this is written with a lighter tone, with relatable instances

 When I woke up this morning I quickly opened the BBC news website to check the 3rd vote, I was relieved to hear it had failed again, but, as I read on, I saw she intends to bring it back a 4th time. Mrs May enough!! You're starting to behave like a rerun of Nick Clegg denying the EU army!
I have long been saying that this deal is a war time capitulation, a surrender document. I was pleased to hear Yanis Varoufakis make the same claim on Question Time Thursday last.

As, I showered I considered a time prior to 1973 when we joined the EU on a lie. Ted Heath hid the facts from Parliament as to the true intentions of the EU and how it was expected to evolve into this super state that we are seeing today. The Werner report had already been published the path was set, sovereignty would give way and monetary union would follow.  But, Ted a man whom I met in the early 80s and chatted to about of all things about the price of copper whilst we stood against the porcelain at The Waterside Inn in Bray near Maidenhead an elegant Michelin star restaurant adjoining the Thames

It wasn't until 1975, that the “Common Market's ” true intentions were revealed, hence the referendum backed up by the government pamphlet making clear as to the path we were on. But, by this time we were in.  It's important to remember the 70s.  The 70s were known as our darkest decade in peacetime. The days when unions controlled the agenda, with the likes of Red Robbo a man who orchestrated 523 strikes bringing to its knees 40% of all our manufacturing, ultimately paving the way for British Leyland’s demise. An unions agenda was clear during this period it was to bring the UK to its knees and pass it to their communist masters in the Soviet Union. So for sure the common sense position was always to stay with the EU.  But we should be mindful that in later years Mikeal Gorbachev’s quote “the EU is the Soviet Union in western clothes”.

Reflecting back to the days pre the EU, I remembered certain events by today's standard perhaps could not exist. A man would visit our doorstep perhaps three days of the week, he would drive a chocolate brown Morris 1000 van emblazoned across the side were gold lettering in Roman font ”Whitehorn Bakers”. I scurried to the door, my mum perhaps flirtatiously would greet him, I've added that bit but for sure she bought a lot from him the rapport was already secure, what did I care as long as she bought the cream horns! No plastic in sight, the bread came in a wax paper with sheet fold ends. 

This was an era like no other and it pre-dated the EU. We used to take the bread wrapper race to the local park and polish the slide with the wax content and then see how far we could shoot off the end of the slide. Good days for some reason I always remember them as sunny days, which of course could not have been the case. Our early EU years conversely I remember them as dark, cold, gloomy days as we huddled around an open fire during the many power cuts as we endured the 3-day week. We were more fortunate as coal was scarce, the miners had us on our knees my dad was able to purchase vast quantities as and when it was available.  The coal lorry loaded with black sacks, men would stagger into our coal shed with endless bags loaded on their backs protected by what was known as Donkey Jackets with a leather shoulder patch.

In short there was a life prior to the EU and by all accounts it was a good life. I'm not suggesting we will go back to sunny uplands, just that we really reflect on what the EU offers this modern world. It offers a story from the past. Mikael Gorbachev is correct in his assertion. The EU is an ideology with no new ideas. It is a collection of self-indulgent elites who are stifling great nations, destroying hope to millions across the Med. Sucking the life blood out of the economies of the richer nations. 

Look to how the world has evolved! The British Empire dominated the 19C. Americanisation the 20thC. The EU Century has not and will not happen. This Century belongs to Asia, here we have a form of cooperation, no ivory towers just a collective understanding. The Financial crisis of 2008 was not a global crisis as we like to refer to it.  It was a western crisis Asia have grown phenomenally since 2008. Read my blog here. 

They have grown through cooperation, they have each supported each other, investing in each other, and they have done this with a wave mentality respecting each others’ sovereignty. Not one drunken official amongst them. Not one treaty leading to some form of unification. When I try to get this point across I am always met with a parochial attitude, Asia is too far, we need to reduce our carbon foot print. Yet we use Asia as our manufacturer, we ship our North Sea shell fish to Thailand to be shelled (that's another story perhaps a read of my blog of that subject you would not eat another prawn). Read my blog here
I will leave this here today.  Again thank you for taking the time to read my ramblings!




In a spirit of Saturday this is written with a lighter tone, with relatable instances

 When I woke up this morning I quickly opened the BBC news website to check the 3rd vote, I was relieved to hear it had failed again, but, as I read on, I saw she intends to bring it back a 4th time. Mrs May enough!! You're starting to behave like a rerun of Nick Clegg denying the EU army!
I have long been saying that this deal is a war time capitulation, a surrender document. I was pleased to hear Yanis Varoufakis make the same claim on Question Time Thursday last.

As, I showered I considered a time prior to 1973 when we joined the EU on a lie. Ted Heath hid the facts from Parliament as to the true intentions of the EU and how it was expected to evolve into this super state that we are seeing today. The Werner report had already been published the path was set, sovereignty would give way and monetary union would follow.  But, Ted a man whom I met in the early 80s and chatted to about of all things about the price of copper whilst we stood against the porcelain at The Waterside Inn in Bray near Maidenhead an elegant Michelin star restaurant adjoining the Thames

It wasn't until 1975, that the “Common Market's ” true intentions were revealed, hence the referendum backed up by the government pamphlet making clear as to the path we were on. But, by this time we were in.  It's important to remember the 70s.  The 70s were known as our darkest decade in peacetime. The days when unions controlled the agenda, with the likes of Red Robbo a man who orchestrated 523 strikes bringing to its knees 40% of all our manufacturing, ultimately paving the way for British Leyland’s demise. An unions agenda was clear during this period it was to bring the UK to its knees and pass it to their communist masters in the Soviet Union. So for sure the common sense position was always to stay with the EU.  But we should be mindful that in later years Mikeal Gorbachev’s quote “the EU is the Soviet Union in western clothes”.

Reflecting back to the days pre the EU, I remembered certain events by today's standard perhaps could not exist. A man would visit our doorstep perhaps three days of the week, he would drive a chocolate brown Morris 1000 van emblazoned across the side were gold lettering in Roman font ”Whitehorn Bakers”. I scurried to the door, my mum perhaps flirtatiously would greet him, I've added that bit but for sure she bought a lot from him the rapport was already secure, what did I care as long as she bought the cream horns! No plastic in sight, the bread came in a wax paper with sheet fold ends. 

This was an era like no other and it pre-dated the EU. We used to take the bread wrapper race to the local park and polish the slide with the wax content and then see how far we could shoot off the end of the slide. Good days for some reason I always remember them as sunny days, which of course could not have been the case. Our early EU years conversely I remember them as dark, cold, gloomy days as we huddled around an open fire during the many power cuts as we endured the 3-day week. We were more fortunate as coal was scarce, the miners had us on our knees my dad was able to purchase vast quantities as and when it was available.  The coal lorry loaded with black sacks, men would stagger into our coal shed with endless bags loaded on their backs protected by what was known as Donkey Jackets with a leather shoulder patch.

In short there was a life prior to the EU and by all accounts it was a good life. I'm not suggesting we will go back to sunny uplands, just that we really reflect on what the EU offers this modern world. It offers a story from the past. Mikael Gorbachev is correct in his assertion. The EU is an ideology with no new ideas. It is a collection of self-indulgent elites who are stifling great nations, destroying hope to millions across the Med. Sucking the life blood out of the economies of the richer nations. 

Look to how the world has evolved! The British Empire dominated the 19C. Americanisation the 20thC. The EU Century has not and will not happen. This Century belongs to Asia, here we have a form of cooperation, no ivory towers just a collective understanding. The Financial crisis of 2008 was not a global crisis as we like to refer to it.  It was a western crisis Asia have grown phenomenally since 2008. Read my blog here. 

They have grown through cooperation, they have each supported each other, investing in each other, and they have done this with a wave mentality respecting each others’ sovereignty. Not one drunken official amongst them. Not one treaty leading to some form of unification. When I try to get this point across I am always met with a parochial attitude, Asia is too far, we need to reduce our carbon foot print. Yet we use Asia as our manufacturer, we ship our North Sea shell fish to Thailand to be shelled (that's another story perhaps a read of my blog of that subject you would not eat another prawn). Read my blog here
I will leave this here today.  Again thank you for taking the time to read my ramblings!


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Wednesday, 27 March 2019

Are we being fooled? Does our food have high levels of Mercury and Arsenic substance that the EU Condones


Be careful Mr Tusk. The Spinx like Daimajin will rise up to protect the 17.4M. Who are you to take their European citizenship away? Just because you and your cohorts have hijacked the future for millions across Europe it does not make the 17.4 Million in the UK any less European, our rights are inalienable.

Your persona is strange, a devout fighter of the Soviet doctrine yet you emerge in Europe intent on creating a Soviet Empire. Mr Tusk turn your attentions to your own continent under your watch we are seeing oppression in Catalonia and a brutal crushing of the Mouvement des gilets jaunes. The brutal pictures that we are seeing you could be forgiven for believing they are from the days of Soviet invasions, perhaps the streets of Prague in the 60s. To use your words; “often the ones beaten are in the right”. Hell belongs your domain Mr Tusk. You are a classic example of a person who leaves their country to escape their culture who then tries to set up that same culture you've escaped in your adopted country.

I will turn my attention today to the banking sector, for here we are full of, I guess a form of Sophism logic. I do not ever recall a head of state or a British Prime Minister refer to the banking sector as the enemy. Francois Hollande did just that, yet he espouses vitriol towards the British people showing his and Macron's desire to punish us with his attempts to pull the banking sector from London in order to harm the Great British people. Fooled we are not!

For many years the EU have been meddling in the affairs of the city, not least by Monsieur Barnier, as notes of meetings with Lord King will attest to. The EU have tried hard to influence, even control the affairs of the city. Since 2008 this campaign has intensified with regulation flowing from Brussels due to the Western Financial crisis (The west refer to this as the global financial crisis for me this is a misnomer as the Asia region marched on regardless).  REFER TO MY NOTE HERE.

In particular, four measures are likely to have a large impact on the City: restrictions on the over-the-counter derivatives market; the EU’s implementation of the so-called Basel 3 agreement, which imposes tougher requirements for capital and liquidity; caps on bankers’ bonuses; and the proposed financial transactions (Tobin) tax. The Tobin Tax named after James Tobin a Nobel prize winner for economics in 1972. It was his hope after the end of exchange rate controls (the Bretton Woods agreement in 1971) to throw sand in the wheels of currency speculation.  Again this tax gains momentum championed by France through the corridors of the EU. Ironically, both taxes will do little to quell the city appetite as they will just relocate to New York, Dubai, Hong Kong or Singapore. A loss for the whole of Europe!

Briefly I'll turn to remainers. I've noticed, for some time how remainers always espouse the term I. One comment l received yesterday, where a business owner raged about WTO paperwork, the complexity of it, although he admitted he'd only completed the paperwork once as his business is Europe. A business he owns that deals with Europe smoothly.  He also said if WTO was so easy why do countries push for Free Trade Agreements. 

I have written here to alert, to open discussion on the opportunity of the 21C, this is Asia's century.  But again the hostility I've received to the notion of flying over Europe to chase far off dreams seem to some, well mind boggling. There is a lot of substance here to cover, I will try to deal with this as I write below although some of the excuses appear shallow.  

  • First we are a community, we are not I or my business, we have a duty of care for each other. Perhaps if we did it will result in fewer employees knocking back anti depressants. 
  • Remainers seem to think that all trade with the EU will end March 30th, where does this come from? 
  • As for Free trade Agreements I think India have tried to negotiate with EU for eight years, and they, if they haven't already given up. 
  • WTO, it seems there is a belief that our options will always be; remain in the EU or be locked to WTO in perpetuity, again why? Will the EU not want to trade with their biggest market, admittedly when sanity prevails they I'm sure, will want a free trade agreement with the UK. After all a trade surplus exists. 
  • My final point; the excuse that Asia is too far I think is quite pathetic, one person used the argument that we must reduce our carbon footprint. Whilst I agree and I do hope they embrace electric cars. I do find such an attitude laudable as we not only holiday in Asia or Jamaica, St Lucia but we tuck into North Sea prawns with our surf and turf. Prawns that have been flown to Thailand, Vietnam to be shelled.



Shell Fish Pollution


On the subject of Prawns, I recently had dinner with a scientist from the EU. He alerted me of the risk that North Sea shell fish are travelling from rich waters  off the UK to be shelled in Asia.  They are being substituted by shell fish caught in waters in Asia with high mercury and arsenic content. I later asked Andrew Wilson from EU food sector this very question, he attempted to dismiss this notion as stupidity, as he does the views of Brexit leavers but he later guardedly admitted that yes it is a concern.

For today I will leave this blog here, thank you for reading.


 Be careful Mr Tusk. The Spinx like Daimajin will rise up to protect the 17.4M. Who are you to take their European citizenship away? Just because you and your cohorts have hijacked the future for millions across Europe it does not make the 17.4 Million in the UK any less European, our rights are inalienable.

Your persona is strange, a devout fighter of the Soviet doctrine yet you emerge in Europe intent on creating a Soviet Empire. Mr Tusk turn your attentions to your own continent under your watch we are seeing oppression in Catalonia and a brutal crushing of the Mouvement des gilets jaunes. The brutal pictures that we are seeing you could be forgiven for believing they are from the days of Soviet invasions, perhaps the streets of Prague in the 60s. To use your words; “often the ones beaten are in the right”. Hell belongs your domain Mr Tusk. You are a classic example of a person who leaves their country to escape their culture who then tries to set up that same culture you've escaped in your adopted country.

I will turn my attention today to the banking sector, for here we are full of, I guess a form of Sophism logic. I do not ever recall a head of state or a British Prime Minister refer to the banking sector as the enemy. Francois Hollande did just that, yet he espouses vitriol towards the British people showing his and Macron's desire to punish us with his attempts to pull the banking sector from London in order to harm the Great British people. Fooled we are not!

For many years the EU have been meddling in the affairs of the city, not least by Monsieur Barnier, as notes of meetings with Lord King will attest to. The EU have tried hard to influence, even control the affairs of the city. Since 2008 this campaign has intensified with regulation flowing from Brussels due to the Western Financial crisis (The west refer to this as the global financial crisis for me this is a misnomer as the Asia region marched on regardless).  REFER TO MY NOTE HERE.

In particular, four measures are likely to have a large impact on the City: restrictions on the over-the-counter derivatives market; the EU’s implementation of the so-called Basel 3 agreement, which imposes tougher requirements for capital and liquidity; caps on bankers’ bonuses; and the proposed financial transactions (Tobin) tax. The Tobin Tax named after James Tobin a Nobel prize winner for economics in 1972. It was his hope after the end of exchange rate controls (the Bretton Woods agreement in 1971) to throw sand in the wheels of currency speculation.  Again this tax gains momentum championed by France through the corridors of the EU. Ironically, both taxes will do little to quell the city appetite as they will just relocate to New York, Dubai, Hong Kong or Singapore. A loss for the whole of Europe!

Briefly I'll turn to remainers. I've noticed, for some time how remainers always espouse the term I. One comment l received yesterday, where a business owner raged about WTO paperwork, the complexity of it, although he admitted he'd only completed the paperwork once as his business is Europe. A business he owns that deals with Europe smoothly.  He also said if WTO was so easy why do countries push for Free Trade Agreements. 

I have written here to alert, to open discussion on the opportunity of the 21C, this is Asia's century.  But again the hostility I've received to the notion of flying over Europe to chase far off dreams seem to some, well mind boggling. There is a lot of substance here to cover, I will try to deal with this as I write below although some of the excuses appear shallow.  

  • First we are a community, we are not I or my business, we have a duty of care for each other. Perhaps if we did it will result in fewer employees knocking back anti depressants. 
  • Remainers seem to think that all trade with the EU will end March 30th, where does this come from? 
  • As for Free trade Agreements I think India have tried to negotiate with EU for eight years, and they, if they haven't already given up. 
  • WTO, it seems there is a belief that our options will always be; remain in the EU or be locked to WTO in perpetuity, again why? Will the EU not want to trade with their biggest market, admittedly when sanity prevails they I'm sure, will want a free trade agreement with the UK. After all a trade surplus exists. 
  • My final point; the excuse that Asia is too far I think is quite pathetic, one person used the argument that we must reduce our carbon footprint. Whilst I agree and I do hope they embrace electric cars. I do find such an attitude laudable as we not only holiday in Asia or Jamaica, St Lucia but we tuck into North Sea prawns with our surf and turf. Prawns that have been flown to Thailand, Vietnam to be shelled.



Shell Fish Pollution


On the subject of Prawns, I recently had dinner with a scientist from the EU. He alerted me of the risk that North Sea shell fish are travelling from rich waters  off the UK to be shelled in Asia.  They are being substituted by shell fish caught in waters in Asia with high mercury and arsenic content. I later asked Andrew Wilson from EU food sector this very question, he attempted to dismiss this notion as stupidity, as he does the views of Brexit leavers but he later guardedly admitted that yes it is a concern.

For today I will leave this blog here, thank you for reading.

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Friday, 22 March 2019

Brexit and the "Wolfie Smith" of Politics


Today I have a compilation, as it's Saturday it has a lighter tone, forgive my attempt at humour the subjects are no less serious..

Confusion reigns supreme. I am pleased to have heard that the government are running a tv campaign to advise on leaving March the 29th, it would mean someone somewhere have taken initiative.  But, I'm confused and I don't know quite what I missed. I read today that Mrs May will pull next weeks vote if there is no support. Well, I am under the impression that Bercow scuppered the vote as there are no meaningful changes. The only way to bypass, is to change the deal remove the backstop or close this parliamentary session. Which our dear Queen would have to do, but I am sure Her Majesty is aware the last time a monarch took such an initiative was Charles the 1st, his head and body were buried separately! 

So in short what has changed?



I am also very confused by Corbyn.  We are in governmental crisis (although I sincerely believe, as the campaign shows that all will be ok) yet Corbyn calls for another referendum minutes after abstaining on a vote that would have paved a way to new vote.  I'm in awe (tongue in cheek) of this government and this parliament. At what seems parliaments the darkest moment when we the Great British plebiscites expect unity from our MPs. He, Corbyn attends a meeting only to then throw his toys around like a two-year old in the chocolate section of Sainsbury’s, why? Because Chuka Umuna attended!

You really could not make this up.  John Sullivan god rest his soul, could maybe have written a sit-com from this, one that rivalled “Only Fools and Horses”. Which brings me nicely to my next point or suggestion: Given the shenanigans of the last few years, the tantrums in parliament isles, the jeers from the benches, the misrepresentation’s of the manifesto, the obstinate way our MPs have cavalierly disregarded their employers wishes. Should we now consider parliament as a soap opera put it on ITV place adverts and remove 600 salaries from our taxes. I'm sure Robert Goodwill MP would agree there would be more opportunities to play with expenses without so much public scrutiny.

I jest, or do I. It's amazing despite our Parliaments the best efforts, Corporate UK continues and continues to out-perform. Record employment, less unemployment, record inward investment 2nd best in the world, 2nd only to China, here's the rub European Union corporations are investing in the UK at a faster rate than in previous years. All of this at a time when our Parliament behave like petulant children.

We have Monsieur Macron from the steps of Downing Street call for all British industry to relocate to France, calling for the city to consider Paris for their future global business, as if that would happen. What a rude dis-courteous man. I believe France for their own sake need to reform, but out of protest to this clown I will don a yellow vest, if only theoretically.  



To return to “Wolfie Smith” Corbyn, also written by John Sullivan, I'm only now beginning to realize how much we have lost due to John's untimely death. Corbyn just continues to muddle on, espousing tried and disastrous policies. Policies that ushered in 3 day weeks, power outages, only three days of TV per week.  Did we never have Maggie Thatcher who sorted out the last mess. Corbyn please go join your comrades on a beach in OZ. I realize “Red Robbo” is no longer with us but at least his last 30 years were spent in the sun. The man who orchestrated 523 strikes which eventually toppled British Leyland. For those who are not aware British Leyland represented 40% of the UK manufacturing output. They were unrivalled in their early years as the premier mass producer of family cars. It was a travesty that this man was able to organize so many strikes which ultimately destroyed Leyland, to the pleasure of his Russian paymasters I'm sure. Now there's a similarity!

The last two years have shown that the government are like traffic cops the roads flow better when they are not there.

Leave March 29th March 30th will look and feel the same except we'll be £39 billion better off.








Today I have a compilation, as it's Saturday it has a lighter tone, forgive my attempt at humour the subjects are no less serious..

Confusion reigns supreme. I am pleased to have heard that the government are running a tv campaign to advise on leaving March the 29th, it would mean someone somewhere have taken initiative.  But, I'm confused and I don't know quite what I missed. I read today that Mrs May will pull next weeks vote if there is no support. Well, I am under the impression that Bercow scuppered the vote as there are no meaningful changes. The only way to bypass, is to change the deal remove the backstop or close this parliamentary session. Which our dear Queen would have to do, but I am sure Her Majesty is aware the last time a monarch took such an initiative was Charles the 1st, his head and body were buried separately! 

So in short what has changed?



I am also very confused by Corbyn.  We are in governmental crisis (although I sincerely believe, as the campaign shows that all will be ok) yet Corbyn calls for another referendum minutes after abstaining on a vote that would have paved a way to new vote.  I'm in awe (tongue in cheek) of this government and this parliament. At what seems parliaments the darkest moment when we the Great British plebiscites expect unity from our MPs. He, Corbyn attends a meeting only to then throw his toys around like a two-year old in the chocolate section of Sainsbury’s, why? Because Chuka Umuna attended!

You really could not make this up.  John Sullivan god rest his soul, could maybe have written a sit-com from this, one that rivalled “Only Fools and Horses”. Which brings me nicely to my next point or suggestion: Given the shenanigans of the last few years, the tantrums in parliament isles, the jeers from the benches, the misrepresentation’s of the manifesto, the obstinate way our MPs have cavalierly disregarded their employers wishes. Should we now consider parliament as a soap opera put it on ITV place adverts and remove 600 salaries from our taxes. I'm sure Robert Goodwill MP would agree there would be more opportunities to play with expenses without so much public scrutiny.

I jest, or do I. It's amazing despite our Parliaments the best efforts, Corporate UK continues and continues to out-perform. Record employment, less unemployment, record inward investment 2nd best in the world, 2nd only to China, here's the rub European Union corporations are investing in the UK at a faster rate than in previous years. All of this at a time when our Parliament behave like petulant children.

We have Monsieur Macron from the steps of Downing Street call for all British industry to relocate to France, calling for the city to consider Paris for their future global business, as if that would happen. What a rude dis-courteous man. I believe France for their own sake need to reform, but out of protest to this clown I will don a yellow vest, if only theoretically.  



To return to “Wolfie Smith” Corbyn, also written by John Sullivan, I'm only now beginning to realize how much we have lost due to John's untimely death. Corbyn just continues to muddle on, espousing tried and disastrous policies. Policies that ushered in 3 day weeks, power outages, only three days of TV per week.  Did we never have Maggie Thatcher who sorted out the last mess. Corbyn please go join your comrades on a beach in OZ. I realize “Red Robbo” is no longer with us but at least his last 30 years were spent in the sun. The man who orchestrated 523 strikes which eventually toppled British Leyland. For those who are not aware British Leyland represented 40% of the UK manufacturing output. They were unrivalled in their early years as the premier mass producer of family cars. It was a travesty that this man was able to organize so many strikes which ultimately destroyed Leyland, to the pleasure of his Russian paymasters I'm sure. Now there's a similarity!

The last two years have shown that the government are like traffic cops the roads flow better when they are not there.

Leave March 29th March 30th will look and feel the same except we'll be £39 billion better off.







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Tuesday, 19 March 2019

Brexit Dichotomy. Success of Asia Versus Self-harm of Europe

Join With These Names Make Indonesia Home.


A Simile comes to mind when you consider two systems or in this case a dichotomy. Two clear systems one based on economics the other based on ideology. One is prospering the other is self-harming.  Having grown up in the Soviet era and seen how terribly oppressive living behind the “iron curtain” was. How we fought to rid our own UK streets of the militancy driving us to communism, how could we turn around now by supporting the EU which has adopted the same persona of the old Soviet Union.

Two institutions:

• One fully fledged, invasive, autocratic and stagnant, the other vibrant, dynamic devoid of invasive regulations and economically buoyant. 

• One institution has achieved mediocre economic growth, in 10 years accumulative 2.2% (since 2008 through until 2018) the other would consider economic growth of 5% per year as a troubled year.



• One institution is linked to the global economic crisis sweeping the west who  then reacted poorly even against its peers, the other has looked inward pulling together achieving phenomenal growth, prosperity throughout this period.

• One institution demands globalization the other is thankful they’re not part of it.

• One institution has plunged, in some areas 40% of their young into hopelessness devoid of any possible future, the other has lifted millions literally millions out of poverty.

• One institution stifle business with regulation, eg. insisting that Salmon have a label to advise that it might contain fish, the other concentrates on the route to one's plate.

It's not rocket science to guess who I speak about. It is of course the antithesis of nirvana the European Union that bastion of authoritarianism, the Soviet Union in Western Clothes.  On the other side we have a cooperative, a collection of Asian countries working together to bring each other up the economic and social ladder. Sovereign parliaments that learn from each other, that invest in each other. They don't sit by and watch as rafts of young are left hopeless wallowing on their sun-drenched beaches off the Mediterranean, whilst their leaders stumble down stairs or slide under tables whilst indulging in opulent wines from the French vineyards.

What we have through a lack of interference or any egotistical need to become a United States to rival Trump's America, is an Asian mega-system consisting dozens of disparate economies coming together forming a whole greater than the sum of its parts.  To this region the notion of globalization was a harsh lesson that they learned in 1997/98. The currency crisis that swept Asia was anything but global. It was for this reason that individual Asian countries became a supportive companion to their neighbours. In short, Asia trade and growth became naturally interlinked, not through regulation, or through some ego driven ideology, but, through necessity growing organically through respect, identifying each others strengths and weaknesses. Richer communities invest in poorer regions. This I covered in my previous note.



In 2008, Asia inter-regional trade was of such strength that it offset the downturn in Europe and US. So robust that growth in the Asia region it accelerated, hence forth doubling between 2008 and 2016. Starting 2008 at 29% of their internal trade rising to 59% in 2016. A volume increase equivalent to Europe's internal market, not one “Common External Tariff” CET in sight.

To an Asian, Globalization is but a western pipe dream, one they want no part of. As 1998 proved, it did them no favours, may have even exasperated the issue.

Trade with Northern Asia, Southeast Asia, East Asia, South Asia and West Asia combined in two decades have gained a significant portion of global trade.

There has been much debate whether Asia can decouple from the west for investment the answer is a resounding yes. 

Consider this: Asia throughout the region is so diverse, it can sustain all their technology, agriculture alongside mass-produced production thus, satisfying all of their needs.

As the Brexit debate rages on consider the points that I have made, for sure the European Union is doing Europe no favours. I also suspect in 100years time, effigies of Tony Blair will be burnt on March the 29th commemorating yet another traitor of the British people. 



Join With These Names Make Indonesia Home.


A Simile comes to mind when you consider two systems or in this case a dichotomy. Two clear systems one based on economics the other based on ideology. One is prospering the other is self-harming.  Having grown up in the Soviet era and seen how terribly oppressive living behind the “iron curtain” was. How we fought to rid our own UK streets of the militancy driving us to communism, how could we turn around now by supporting the EU which has adopted the same persona of the old Soviet Union.

Two institutions:

• One fully fledged, invasive, autocratic and stagnant, the other vibrant, dynamic devoid of invasive regulations and economically buoyant. 

• One institution has achieved mediocre economic growth, in 10 years accumulative 2.2% (since 2008 through until 2018) the other would consider economic growth of 5% per year as a troubled year.



• One institution is linked to the global economic crisis sweeping the west who  then reacted poorly even against its peers, the other has looked inward pulling together achieving phenomenal growth, prosperity throughout this period.

• One institution demands globalization the other is thankful they’re not part of it.

• One institution has plunged, in some areas 40% of their young into hopelessness devoid of any possible future, the other has lifted millions literally millions out of poverty.

• One institution stifle business with regulation, eg. insisting that Salmon have a label to advise that it might contain fish, the other concentrates on the route to one's plate.

It's not rocket science to guess who I speak about. It is of course the antithesis of nirvana the European Union that bastion of authoritarianism, the Soviet Union in Western Clothes.  On the other side we have a cooperative, a collection of Asian countries working together to bring each other up the economic and social ladder. Sovereign parliaments that learn from each other, that invest in each other. They don't sit by and watch as rafts of young are left hopeless wallowing on their sun-drenched beaches off the Mediterranean, whilst their leaders stumble down stairs or slide under tables whilst indulging in opulent wines from the French vineyards.

What we have through a lack of interference or any egotistical need to become a United States to rival Trump's America, is an Asian mega-system consisting dozens of disparate economies coming together forming a whole greater than the sum of its parts.  To this region the notion of globalization was a harsh lesson that they learned in 1997/98. The currency crisis that swept Asia was anything but global. It was for this reason that individual Asian countries became a supportive companion to their neighbours. In short, Asia trade and growth became naturally interlinked, not through regulation, or through some ego driven ideology, but, through necessity growing organically through respect, identifying each others strengths and weaknesses. Richer communities invest in poorer regions. This I covered in my previous note.



In 2008, Asia inter-regional trade was of such strength that it offset the downturn in Europe and US. So robust that growth in the Asia region it accelerated, hence forth doubling between 2008 and 2016. Starting 2008 at 29% of their internal trade rising to 59% in 2016. A volume increase equivalent to Europe's internal market, not one “Common External Tariff” CET in sight.

To an Asian, Globalization is but a western pipe dream, one they want no part of. As 1998 proved, it did them no favours, may have even exasperated the issue.

Trade with Northern Asia, Southeast Asia, East Asia, South Asia and West Asia combined in two decades have gained a significant portion of global trade.

There has been much debate whether Asia can decouple from the west for investment the answer is a resounding yes. 

Consider this: Asia throughout the region is so diverse, it can sustain all their technology, agriculture alongside mass-produced production thus, satisfying all of their needs.

As the Brexit debate rages on consider the points that I have made, for sure the European Union is doing Europe no favours. I also suspect in 100years time, effigies of Tony Blair will be burnt on March the 29th commemorating yet another traitor of the British people. 



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Saturday, 16 February 2019

Myth and Paradox of the Single Market


Attached is a link to an excellent document put together by Michael Burrage of Civitas. It is an expose of the single market and the limited value, to be kind that membership offers. 
Myth and Paradox of 
the Single Market
How the trade benefits of EU membership 
have been mis-sold
Michael Burrage



Part One: The Myth of the Single Market’s Trade Benefits
1. A doubling of trade? A minister’s claim to parliament 8
2. Reviewing the evidence 15
3. What business told, and didn’t tell, the Foreign Office 34
Part Two: The Paradox of Who Benefits from the Single Market
4. What would have happened
in the absence of the Single Market? 64
5. Is there a single market in services? 89
6. Does ‘helping to make the rules’
in Brussels help UK exports? 103
Part Three: Conclusions
7. Image without substance 114
8. The case for an EU research agency in the UK 125
Appendices
A: BIS reply to the author’s FOI request 134
B: A 2007 report by EC staff
on the impact of the Internal Market 138

The remainers paint the leavers as liars, thieves and vagabonds.  Consider just a few points below and then ponder over the insistence that we must be part of the Single Market.

From the beginning (a fairy tale this is not). Early 70s until 2015 there are just 37 FTA agreements that the EU have negotiated with small countries, in some cases collections of countries. This brings the total to 55 as of 2017. The total GDP of these countries is just $7.7trn.


In 2011 A report was produced by the Department for Business, Innovation and skills (BIS). This report was seized upon, misinterpreted forming astonishing results which have proved to be untrue. The Minister of state took the now fabricated version of this report and informed Parliament. He claimed that: ‘

  • EU countries trade twice as much with each other as they would do in the absence of the Single Market programme’.

Under the freedom of information act the report was eventually published. Upon examination, it was shown that this claim was a lie. 

  • Sir Edward Jonathan Davey MP FRSA is a British Liberal Democrat politician. He has been the Member of Parliament for Kingston and Surbiton since the 2017 general election, having previously been MP for the constituency from 1997 to 2015.

There were no such findings, there was no such research to prove this theory out. In fact the report was based on a report produced in 2007 by three French Academics. This report was taken compiled together with an EU report which was an attempt to find failings with the single market, to prove a case for more integration and central control.

With the upcoming release of the document the Minister perhaps sensing a discomfort added further reports, produced after his claims. In a vain hope to recover his now tattered image these reports were: 

  1. An internal report the department had published, but this showed no reliable evidence on the benefits of the Single Market.
  2. A Review of the Balance of Competence between the UK and the EU, which was conducted by the Foreign Office. Inclusive of claims by the bastion of impartiality the CBI, TheCityUK and various trade federations and businesses. They each claimed that UK exporters have benefited by ceding responsibility for trade negotiations to the EC.



No report cited any evidence which supported the Minister's claim, clearly he misled the house.

To come to the 55 trade agreements now in place with various small countries and collections of countries. In total a GDP of$7.7trn.  Michael Burrage of Civitas compares here with those negotiated by Chile, Korea, Singapore and Switzerland, four independent countries which have none of the ‘heft’ or ‘clout’ or ‘negotiating leverage’ which the CBI and many businesses consider essential in trade negotiations. 


The conclusions are:

  • By contrast the aggregate GDP of all the countries with which Chile had agreements in force is $58.3tn, Korea’s totalled $40.8tn, Singapore’s $38.7tn and Switzerland’s $39.8tn. However, the agreements of these four countries include their agreements with the EU, which has a GDP of $16.7tn.

  • About 90 per cent of the agreements of these four smaller, independent countries include services, whereas only 68 per cent of the EC’s trade agreements do so.

  • The EC has therefore opened services markets of just $4.8tn to UK exporters, whereas the Swiss have opened markets of $35tn, the Singaporeans of $37.2tn, the Koreans of $40tn and Chileans of $55.4tn. However, we do not know if the EC agreements secured better terms than these independent countries, since the scope of these agreements has never been compared in detail.

  • Analysis of the growth of UK exports of goods before and after EC agreements have come into force, for at least five years, shows that in most cases (10 out of 15) the post-agreement growth of UK exports has fallen. The five countries where the post-agreement growth of UK exports rose were Turkey, Chile, Lebanon, Papua New Guinea and Fiji. These therefore are the clear success stories of 42 years of EC negotiation on the UK’s behalf. Their total GDP in 2015 was $1.1tn, which is significantly less than the $1.5tn GDP of Australia with which the EC has yet to negotiate an agreement.

  • By contrast most of Switzerland’s agreements (11 out of 15), most of Singapore’s (eight out of 12) and most of Korea’s (four out of five) have been followed by an increase in the rate of growth of their exports to the partner countries. Most Chilean agreements (13 out of 18) have been followed by a decline in the growth of their exports, though they differ from the British in that most of their pre-agreement rates of growth to these 13 countries were unsustainably high.


As you see the obfuscation dates way back, clearly indicating considerable vested interests which are not inline with the UK's or its subjects vested interests.



Attached is a link to an excellent document put together by Michael Burrage of Civitas. It is an expose of the single market and the limited value, to be kind that membership offers. 
Myth and Paradox of 
the Single Market
How the trade benefits of EU membership 
have been mis-sold
Michael Burrage



Part One: The Myth of the Single Market’s Trade Benefits
1. A doubling of trade? A minister’s claim to parliament 8
2. Reviewing the evidence 15
3. What business told, and didn’t tell, the Foreign Office 34
Part Two: The Paradox of Who Benefits from the Single Market
4. What would have happened
in the absence of the Single Market? 64
5. Is there a single market in services? 89
6. Does ‘helping to make the rules’
in Brussels help UK exports? 103
Part Three: Conclusions
7. Image without substance 114
8. The case for an EU research agency in the UK 125
Appendices
A: BIS reply to the author’s FOI request 134
B: A 2007 report by EC staff
on the impact of the Internal Market 138

The remainers paint the leavers as liars, thieves and vagabonds.  Consider just a few points below and then ponder over the insistence that we must be part of the Single Market.

From the beginning (a fairy tale this is not). Early 70s until 2015 there are just 37 FTA agreements that the EU have negotiated with small countries, in some cases collections of countries. This brings the total to 55 as of 2017. The total GDP of these countries is just $7.7trn.


In 2011 A report was produced by the Department for Business, Innovation and skills (BIS). This report was seized upon, misinterpreted forming astonishing results which have proved to be untrue. The Minister of state took the now fabricated version of this report and informed Parliament. He claimed that: ‘

  • EU countries trade twice as much with each other as they would do in the absence of the Single Market programme’.

Under the freedom of information act the report was eventually published. Upon examination, it was shown that this claim was a lie. 

  • Sir Edward Jonathan Davey MP FRSA is a British Liberal Democrat politician. He has been the Member of Parliament for Kingston and Surbiton since the 2017 general election, having previously been MP for the constituency from 1997 to 2015.

There were no such findings, there was no such research to prove this theory out. In fact the report was based on a report produced in 2007 by three French Academics. This report was taken compiled together with an EU report which was an attempt to find failings with the single market, to prove a case for more integration and central control.

With the upcoming release of the document the Minister perhaps sensing a discomfort added further reports, produced after his claims. In a vain hope to recover his now tattered image these reports were: 

  1. An internal report the department had published, but this showed no reliable evidence on the benefits of the Single Market.
  2. A Review of the Balance of Competence between the UK and the EU, which was conducted by the Foreign Office. Inclusive of claims by the bastion of impartiality the CBI, TheCityUK and various trade federations and businesses. They each claimed that UK exporters have benefited by ceding responsibility for trade negotiations to the EC.



No report cited any evidence which supported the Minister's claim, clearly he misled the house.

To come to the 55 trade agreements now in place with various small countries and collections of countries. In total a GDP of$7.7trn.  Michael Burrage of Civitas compares here with those negotiated by Chile, Korea, Singapore and Switzerland, four independent countries which have none of the ‘heft’ or ‘clout’ or ‘negotiating leverage’ which the CBI and many businesses consider essential in trade negotiations. 


The conclusions are:

  • By contrast the aggregate GDP of all the countries with which Chile had agreements in force is $58.3tn, Korea’s totalled $40.8tn, Singapore’s $38.7tn and Switzerland’s $39.8tn. However, the agreements of these four countries include their agreements with the EU, which has a GDP of $16.7tn.

  • About 90 per cent of the agreements of these four smaller, independent countries include services, whereas only 68 per cent of the EC’s trade agreements do so.

  • The EC has therefore opened services markets of just $4.8tn to UK exporters, whereas the Swiss have opened markets of $35tn, the Singaporeans of $37.2tn, the Koreans of $40tn and Chileans of $55.4tn. However, we do not know if the EC agreements secured better terms than these independent countries, since the scope of these agreements has never been compared in detail.

  • Analysis of the growth of UK exports of goods before and after EC agreements have come into force, for at least five years, shows that in most cases (10 out of 15) the post-agreement growth of UK exports has fallen. The five countries where the post-agreement growth of UK exports rose were Turkey, Chile, Lebanon, Papua New Guinea and Fiji. These therefore are the clear success stories of 42 years of EC negotiation on the UK’s behalf. Their total GDP in 2015 was $1.1tn, which is significantly less than the $1.5tn GDP of Australia with which the EC has yet to negotiate an agreement.

  • By contrast most of Switzerland’s agreements (11 out of 15), most of Singapore’s (eight out of 12) and most of Korea’s (four out of five) have been followed by an increase in the rate of growth of their exports to the partner countries. Most Chilean agreements (13 out of 18) have been followed by a decline in the growth of their exports, though they differ from the British in that most of their pre-agreement rates of growth to these 13 countries were unsustainably high.


As you see the obfuscation dates way back, clearly indicating considerable vested interests which are not inline with the UK's or its subjects vested interests.


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