How Asia's Money Flows, Policy They Will Set

Where we are today is really not the place we have always been, by this I mean by reference to Asia's Century. Whilst this is Asia Century that there is no doubt, but it came about through a well oiled cycle. Asia initial growth was a direct result of Western funding, money or a better term investments flowed from the US and Europe directly into the two waves of growth that I refer in a previous mail.  Read here the third wave. 

It's right to say that the US and to some extent Europe kicked this process off in building Japan and Korea up from what were the ashes of the 2nd World War. To some extent the US and European funds continued to flow for the 2nd wave of growth which included Taiwan, Vietnam and later China. At this stage Japan and Korea along with the US and Europe invested their hard-earned savings building what we have today a China that will soon, if it hasn't already will take the number 1 slot for the largest economy. Without this global approach to investment I'm sure this region would have struggled. But of course this was not a one way street, as big corporations were able to leverage cheap labour as the emerging markets emerged.

Of the 3rd wave, this was heavily skewed in favour of investors from the now vibrant North and East Asia. Whilst of course East Asia were funding US and European debt through their purchase of treasuries. The economic cycle continues unabated. The dollar has secured stability and continued as the world's reserve currency. China and Japan are by far the largest holders of US treasuries holding approximately $1 Trillion each a phenomenal amount of debt. Add to this Hong Kong and Taiwan who each have $200 Billion of treasuries, then China conceivably sits on $1.4 Trillion. That's if you subscribe to the 1949 civil war split, which of course you have to as it happened. Chiang Kai-shek, of the Nationalist Party, met with Communist leader Mao Tse-tung in the south-western city of Chongqing, following which the nationalist fled china and established a beachhead across the Taiwan strait.  China have never recognized the break away province and Taiwan have not declared independence.  You could of course argue which belongs to which but to argue two separate countries would perhaps be nebulous, they are akin to North and South Vietnam.  As for US treasuries it's fair to say that 55% of US debt is held by Asian countries, this is all before you consider Asian investment funds in US equity, Japan alone have a further $1 Trillion invested. 

Note: Japan remains Asia’s largest net foreign creditor with more than $3.5 trillion in overseas assets, but with China’s annual surpluses of $1 trillion and foreign exchange reserves of $3 trillion, China is expected to catch up with Japan by 2020. Together, Japan and China hold nearly $7 trillion in foreign assets across foreign currency reserves, portfolio investment, and direct investment. In terms of total FDI stock, China’s nearly $1.4 trillion ranks just ahead of Japan.

As you can see when I refer to this Century as Asia's Century, I not only mean growth belongs to Asia the Century is owned by them lock, stock and barrel, just as the 20th was owned by the US and the 19th was the Brits.

The west should be concerned if they are not willing to seek out new markets. The UK is absorbed in chasing Brexit aligning themselves with an economy that has never been proven, for this will be a handicap as we move through the next few years. 

Asian countries are reducing their desire for Western debt and have chosen instead to invest in Asia, in themselves.  Monies from richer economies are flowing to the South to what is Asia's new factory base Indonesia. Indonesia a country of 260M people with an average factory floor salary one third of China. Indonesia is predicted, by PWC to be the worlds 5th largest economy by 2030. It will have one of the world's largest modern militaries. Indonesia will be a powerful force that will influence policy not just for Asia.  Ignore it if you wish, as one commentator to my blog has said we should ignore this region to reduce our carbon foot print. It's difficult to argue when the logic flows on that level, yet we send our North sea shell fish to Thailand... read that story if you dare it's scary.... read here

Thank you once again for taking the time to read my disjointed ramblings. Any comments you have would be greatly appreciated. Please do follow me.  I try to update on a daily basis. 

Thank you Nigel Saywell-Lee.

Where we are today is really not the place we have always been, by this I mean by reference to Asia's Century. Whilst this is Asia Century that there is no doubt, but it came about through a well oiled cycle. Asia initial growth was a direct result of Western funding, money or a better term investments flowed from the US and Europe directly into the two waves of growth that I refer in a previous mail.  Read here the third wave. 

It's right to say that the US and to some extent Europe kicked this process off in building Japan and Korea up from what were the ashes of the 2nd World War. To some extent the US and European funds continued to flow for the 2nd wave of growth which included Taiwan, Vietnam and later China. At this stage Japan and Korea along with the US and Europe invested their hard-earned savings building what we have today a China that will soon, if it hasn't already will take the number 1 slot for the largest economy. Without this global approach to investment I'm sure this region would have struggled. But of course this was not a one way street, as big corporations were able to leverage cheap labour as the emerging markets emerged.

Of the 3rd wave, this was heavily skewed in favour of investors from the now vibrant North and East Asia. Whilst of course East Asia were funding US and European debt through their purchase of treasuries. The economic cycle continues unabated. The dollar has secured stability and continued as the world's reserve currency. China and Japan are by far the largest holders of US treasuries holding approximately $1 Trillion each a phenomenal amount of debt. Add to this Hong Kong and Taiwan who each have $200 Billion of treasuries, then China conceivably sits on $1.4 Trillion. That's if you subscribe to the 1949 civil war split, which of course you have to as it happened. Chiang Kai-shek, of the Nationalist Party, met with Communist leader Mao Tse-tung in the south-western city of Chongqing, following which the nationalist fled china and established a beachhead across the Taiwan strait.  China have never recognized the break away province and Taiwan have not declared independence.  You could of course argue which belongs to which but to argue two separate countries would perhaps be nebulous, they are akin to North and South Vietnam.  As for US treasuries it's fair to say that 55% of US debt is held by Asian countries, this is all before you consider Asian investment funds in US equity, Japan alone have a further $1 Trillion invested. 

Note: Japan remains Asia’s largest net foreign creditor with more than $3.5 trillion in overseas assets, but with China’s annual surpluses of $1 trillion and foreign exchange reserves of $3 trillion, China is expected to catch up with Japan by 2020. Together, Japan and China hold nearly $7 trillion in foreign assets across foreign currency reserves, portfolio investment, and direct investment. In terms of total FDI stock, China’s nearly $1.4 trillion ranks just ahead of Japan.

As you can see when I refer to this Century as Asia's Century, I not only mean growth belongs to Asia the Century is owned by them lock, stock and barrel, just as the 20th was owned by the US and the 19th was the Brits.

The west should be concerned if they are not willing to seek out new markets. The UK is absorbed in chasing Brexit aligning themselves with an economy that has never been proven, for this will be a handicap as we move through the next few years. 

Asian countries are reducing their desire for Western debt and have chosen instead to invest in Asia, in themselves.  Monies from richer economies are flowing to the South to what is Asia's new factory base Indonesia. Indonesia a country of 260M people with an average factory floor salary one third of China. Indonesia is predicted, by PWC to be the worlds 5th largest economy by 2030. It will have one of the world's largest modern militaries. Indonesia will be a powerful force that will influence policy not just for Asia.  Ignore it if you wish, as one commentator to my blog has said we should ignore this region to reduce our carbon foot print. It's difficult to argue when the logic flows on that level, yet we send our North sea shell fish to Thailand... read that story if you dare it's scary.... read here

Thank you once again for taking the time to read my disjointed ramblings. Any comments you have would be greatly appreciated. Please do follow me.  I try to update on a daily basis. 

Thank you Nigel Saywell-Lee.

Asia Networked For The Future.

As we the UK contemplate our navel, willingly break each other apart. Content for the EU over some ideological dream, to destroy hope for millions of Europeans as they fight to bring each other to the economic abyss. 

There is a whole new world emerging, taking shape, technology advanced, savvy, progressive, forming alliances and unions, cohesive partnerships that trade freely in a form of regional globalization. A part of the globe that has for over 50 years invested in a sociable manner to advance their neighbours fortunes.  I'm speaking of course of Asia North, South, East, West and Southeast. Not an ivory tower in sight, not one unelected bureaucrat in sight governing the collective. 

Growth has come through stability through neighbourly investment in waves as each has prospered. Wave 1 Japan and Korea funded the development for wave 2, China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan. Together they funded wave 3, South and Southeast Asia. 

The significance of all of this is; wave 1 brought 250M people to an economic, technology-driven wave 2 At the time a little over 1Billion entered the economic cycle of life. Wave 3 opens the way for 2.5Billion.  Not a regulation in sight, no ideology harnessing individual creativity, just good old economics. 

As America looked inward, Europe went about oppressing its citizens Asia pushed on achieving phenomenal growth 10 times that of the US, 70 times that of the Eurozone. PWC claim four of the top five global economies will be Asian all technology-driven, by 2030 they will be Asian economies. They also claim the UK will overtake Germany as Germany falls victim to the EU dogma.

Asia’s home to evolving modernized cities, networked, technology sophisticated, advanced trading hubs from Tokyo, Ho Chi Min, Shanghai, Manila and Jakarta. Sophisticated trading metropolis' advancing, progressing as the west declines through their ineptitude, self serving elitism, infighting. Of course then we have Trump's America. 

The regions are further enhanced by establishing regional hubs, economic zones bringing together Asia  all its extremities, interacting on a wholesale level for distribution of product in a speedy manner. Interim goods destined for finishing in the territory of another sovereign nation, this works so easily, no regulation, no hands tied.  Austerity should it be needed is a sovereign choice not dictated by some faceless masters striking a pen through a nations budgets as if he is deciding between a Margaux or Saint Émilion discarding a perfectly rounded Shiraz at a fraction of the cost.

One's youth is the responsibility of the nation, one’s salaries are paid as the market forces evolve, not squirrelled away by Corporate elites. 

Nine of the Ten busiest interconnecting flight connections worldwide are in Asia, only adding flights from Asia to New York, Toronto play their part in all ten. All across Asia, Asia is Asian the prominent investors are also the largest investors in Asia's success, as Wee Kee Hwee, Jaya Prakash Pradhan, Marie Cecilia Salta attest to in their book The Future Is Asian. India has investors from across Asia, Singapore leads the pack globally with a $14B per year investment. China has invested in Telecoms, Power plants, infrastructure and other areas. Asia helps Asia!

Funds in Beijing and Shanghai are sitting on tens of billions of dollars. They have been mandated to invest in their neighbour’s high-potential sectors from infrastructure and commodities to banks and telecoms. From Pakistan to the Philippines, China is laying down fiber-optic cables and setting up 5G mobile phone operators for giving data, communication access to hundreds of millions of people.

Many of the world’s biggest engineering, procurement, and construction companies are from Asia, they control substantial assets they are from China, South Korea, Japan, India, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia, and all of them want to build across Asia’s rugged extensive borders.

Look to the future. The future is Asian.

As we the UK contemplate our navel, willingly break each other apart. Content for the EU over some ideological dream, to destroy hope for millions of Europeans as they fight to bring each other to the economic abyss. 

There is a whole new world emerging, taking shape, technology advanced, savvy, progressive, forming alliances and unions, cohesive partnerships that trade freely in a form of regional globalization. A part of the globe that has for over 50 years invested in a sociable manner to advance their neighbours fortunes.  I'm speaking of course of Asia North, South, East, West and Southeast. Not an ivory tower in sight, not one unelected bureaucrat in sight governing the collective. 

Growth has come through stability through neighbourly investment in waves as each has prospered. Wave 1 Japan and Korea funded the development for wave 2, China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan. Together they funded wave 3, South and Southeast Asia. 

The significance of all of this is; wave 1 brought 250M people to an economic, technology-driven wave 2 At the time a little over 1Billion entered the economic cycle of life. Wave 3 opens the way for 2.5Billion.  Not a regulation in sight, no ideology harnessing individual creativity, just good old economics. 

As America looked inward, Europe went about oppressing its citizens Asia pushed on achieving phenomenal growth 10 times that of the US, 70 times that of the Eurozone. PWC claim four of the top five global economies will be Asian all technology-driven, by 2030 they will be Asian economies. They also claim the UK will overtake Germany as Germany falls victim to the EU dogma.

Asia’s home to evolving modernized cities, networked, technology sophisticated, advanced trading hubs from Tokyo, Ho Chi Min, Shanghai, Manila and Jakarta. Sophisticated trading metropolis' advancing, progressing as the west declines through their ineptitude, self serving elitism, infighting. Of course then we have Trump's America. 

The regions are further enhanced by establishing regional hubs, economic zones bringing together Asia  all its extremities, interacting on a wholesale level for distribution of product in a speedy manner. Interim goods destined for finishing in the territory of another sovereign nation, this works so easily, no regulation, no hands tied.  Austerity should it be needed is a sovereign choice not dictated by some faceless masters striking a pen through a nations budgets as if he is deciding between a Margaux or Saint Émilion discarding a perfectly rounded Shiraz at a fraction of the cost.

One's youth is the responsibility of the nation, one’s salaries are paid as the market forces evolve, not squirrelled away by Corporate elites. 

Nine of the Ten busiest interconnecting flight connections worldwide are in Asia, only adding flights from Asia to New York, Toronto play their part in all ten. All across Asia, Asia is Asian the prominent investors are also the largest investors in Asia's success, as Wee Kee Hwee, Jaya Prakash Pradhan, Marie Cecilia Salta attest to in their book The Future Is Asian. India has investors from across Asia, Singapore leads the pack globally with a $14B per year investment. China has invested in Telecoms, Power plants, infrastructure and other areas. Asia helps Asia!

Funds in Beijing and Shanghai are sitting on tens of billions of dollars. They have been mandated to invest in their neighbour’s high-potential sectors from infrastructure and commodities to banks and telecoms. From Pakistan to the Philippines, China is laying down fiber-optic cables and setting up 5G mobile phone operators for giving data, communication access to hundreds of millions of people.

Many of the world’s biggest engineering, procurement, and construction companies are from Asia, they control substantial assets they are from China, South Korea, Japan, India, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia, and all of them want to build across Asia’s rugged extensive borders.

Look to the future. The future is Asian.

Asia P.8. Asia's History Hasn't Ended It Has Returned

The Asian “supercomplex” has taken shape: this is evident within the cross-membership model to Asian intergovernmental organizations and through the appearance of political counterweights to China, particularly in India. The United States’ engagements in East and South Asia are also part of this supercomplex. The hardening of Beijing since 2008 has helped maintain US influence in Asia, despite Washington’s decline on the international stage.

Barry Buzan Professor of International Relations at the London School of Economics

There are copious books, white papers, government reports which have been written bestowing the virtues of doing business in Asia. What they seem to miss is the loss that companies will incur for not being represented in Asia. 

Asia consists of 5 billion people.

All to often we in the west are concerned by China and view Asia as China centric.  This is wrong. China is 1.5 billion people less than one third of Asia. Asia throughout history has influenced the west, their business practices, economies, and behaviours.  It's important to understand Asia stretches from Turkey in its West to China in the East with middle East termed middle Asia. It consists of many diverse civilizations which at times have engaged in conflict, but have always traded. 

When you consider America's period and the colonial period then you see just how short a window it was. History can be compartmentalized. 19C belonged to Europe as they colonized many parts of the globe, with the British leading the way, the British Empire. Following which, came the US era of dominance. But, as the US begins to wain we now look to Asia to emerge, and it’s not disappointing.

• It's important to understand Asia had a history of dominance. For almost two millennia they have established with one and another commercial ties which have stretched from the Caspian sea, Mediterranean to the Indus valley. From the fifteenth century Asia had diplomatic ties, economic infrastructure and an advanced cultural sensitivity in dealing with each other. 

A great example; the Buddhist Shwedagon temple situated in Myanmar (Burma) is just one testament of the cultural advance those regions have made, whilst we have languished in the ‘dark ages'. This temple has existed for more than two millennia. Its structure is immense standing 105M tall dominating the skyline of Yangon. This is just one example.

• China has a museum in Xian which portrays to the development of paper as a Chinese success. Some would argue it came from Egypt. For me I don't know which, but the silk road connected both. 

Asia growth has been re-born

Swedagon Temple over 2000 years

My point here is simple. Whilst the last two centuries played out Asia has been fragmented, too poor to participate or protect against the western dominance. They emerged fractured and to some extent cowed. All that has changed, Asia has again risen and will only gain strength throughout this century.  As Professor Kishore Mahbubani, a Singaporean academic and diplomat published a provocative collection of essays titled Can Asians Think? Understanding East and Western thinking and the disparities it produces. As I can attest to, as an advisor to some of the largest companies in Indonesia.  Meetings with Western equity partners were always interesting the west had few shades of gray with Americans operating primarily in black and white. Whereby Asians have so many shades of gray. I'll leave you to ponder the significance of that.

It's important to see China for what it is: The west is deeply suspicious of China, and they should be. The west through George W Bush’s incompetence and Barack Obama couldn't care attitude they have allowed China to dominate the narrative. However, China has spent in Asia some $50billion on infrastructure but it has still bought them little in the way of traction in the region.
  

China's, overheating economy, protectionist policies, aggressive crowding to push competitors out. They are pushing other regions to the front. None less than the young of Indonesia they have with others become a priority for Asia's economic well-being.   China represents to just one-third of Asia’s population, half of Asia’s GDP, half of its outward investment, and less than half of its inbound investment. Asia is much more than just China. 

The Belt and Road scheme has many participants, it is the most significant diplomatic project of the twenty-first century. It is equivalent to the founding of the United Nations, World Bank add the Marshall Plan, it is that big! The crucial difference to these, BRI was conceived in Asia, launched in Asia and will be led by Asians.  More on the BRI click here  More on BRI click here

Asia, in my opinion Indonesia is the growth area.more on Indonesia click here

The Asian “supercomplex” has taken shape: this is evident within the cross-membership model to Asian intergovernmental organizations and through the appearance of political counterweights to China, particularly in India. The United States’ engagements in East and South Asia are also part of this supercomplex. The hardening of Beijing since 2008 has helped maintain US influence in Asia, despite Washington’s decline on the international stage.

Barry Buzan Professor of International Relations at the London School of Economics

There are copious books, white papers, government reports which have been written bestowing the virtues of doing business in Asia. What they seem to miss is the loss that companies will incur for not being represented in Asia. 

Asia consists of 5 billion people.

All to often we in the west are concerned by China and view Asia as China centric.  This is wrong. China is 1.5 billion people less than one third of Asia. Asia throughout history has influenced the west, their business practices, economies, and behaviours.  It's important to understand Asia stretches from Turkey in its West to China in the East with middle East termed middle Asia. It consists of many diverse civilizations which at times have engaged in conflict, but have always traded. 

When you consider America's period and the colonial period then you see just how short a window it was. History can be compartmentalized. 19C belonged to Europe as they colonized many parts of the globe, with the British leading the way, the British Empire. Following which, came the US era of dominance. But, as the US begins to wain we now look to Asia to emerge, and it’s not disappointing.

• It's important to understand Asia had a history of dominance. For almost two millennia they have established with one and another commercial ties which have stretched from the Caspian sea, Mediterranean to the Indus valley. From the fifteenth century Asia had diplomatic ties, economic infrastructure and an advanced cultural sensitivity in dealing with each other. 

A great example; the Buddhist Shwedagon temple situated in Myanmar (Burma) is just one testament of the cultural advance those regions have made, whilst we have languished in the ‘dark ages'. This temple has existed for more than two millennia. Its structure is immense standing 105M tall dominating the skyline of Yangon. This is just one example.

• China has a museum in Xian which portrays to the development of paper as a Chinese success. Some would argue it came from Egypt. For me I don't know which, but the silk road connected both. 

Asia growth has been re-born

Swedagon Temple over 2000 years

My point here is simple. Whilst the last two centuries played out Asia has been fragmented, too poor to participate or protect against the western dominance. They emerged fractured and to some extent cowed. All that has changed, Asia has again risen and will only gain strength throughout this century.  As Professor Kishore Mahbubani, a Singaporean academic and diplomat published a provocative collection of essays titled Can Asians Think? Understanding East and Western thinking and the disparities it produces. As I can attest to, as an advisor to some of the largest companies in Indonesia.  Meetings with Western equity partners were always interesting the west had few shades of gray with Americans operating primarily in black and white. Whereby Asians have so many shades of gray. I'll leave you to ponder the significance of that.

It's important to see China for what it is: The west is deeply suspicious of China, and they should be. The west through George W Bush’s incompetence and Barack Obama couldn't care attitude they have allowed China to dominate the narrative. However, China has spent in Asia some $50billion on infrastructure but it has still bought them little in the way of traction in the region.
  

China's, overheating economy, protectionist policies, aggressive crowding to push competitors out. They are pushing other regions to the front. None less than the young of Indonesia they have with others become a priority for Asia's economic well-being.   China represents to just one-third of Asia’s population, half of Asia’s GDP, half of its outward investment, and less than half of its inbound investment. Asia is much more than just China. 

The Belt and Road scheme has many participants, it is the most significant diplomatic project of the twenty-first century. It is equivalent to the founding of the United Nations, World Bank add the Marshall Plan, it is that big! The crucial difference to these, BRI was conceived in Asia, launched in Asia and will be led by Asians.  More on the BRI click here  More on BRI click here

Asia, in my opinion Indonesia is the growth area.more on Indonesia click here