Asia P.8. Asia's History Hasn't Ended It Has Returned

The Asian “supercomplex” has taken shape: this is evident within the cross-membership model to Asian intergovernmental organizations and through the appearance of political counterweights to China, particularly in India. The United States’ engagements in East and South Asia are also part of this supercomplex. The hardening of Beijing since 2008 has helped maintain US influence in Asia, despite Washington’s decline on the international stage.

Barry Buzan Professor of International Relations at the London School of Economics

There are copious books, white papers, government reports which have been written bestowing the virtues of doing business in Asia. What they seem to miss is the loss that companies will incur for not being represented in Asia. 

Asia consists of 5 billion people.

All to often we in the west are concerned by China and view Asia as China centric.  This is wrong. China is 1.5 billion people less than one third of Asia. Asia throughout history has influenced the west, their business practices, economies, and behaviours.  It's important to understand Asia stretches from Turkey in its West to China in the East with middle East termed middle Asia. It consists of many diverse civilizations which at times have engaged in conflict, but have always traded. 

When you consider America's period and the colonial period then you see just how short a window it was. History can be compartmentalized. 19C belonged to Europe as they colonized many parts of the globe, with the British leading the way, the British Empire. Following which, came the US era of dominance. But, as the US begins to wain we now look to Asia to emerge, and it’s not disappointing.

• It's important to understand Asia had a history of dominance. For almost two millennia they have established with one and another commercial ties which have stretched from the Caspian sea, Mediterranean to the Indus valley. From the fifteenth century Asia had diplomatic ties, economic infrastructure and an advanced cultural sensitivity in dealing with each other. 

A great example; the Buddhist Shwedagon temple situated in Myanmar (Burma) is just one testament of the cultural advance those regions have made, whilst we have languished in the ‘dark ages'. This temple has existed for more than two millennia. Its structure is immense standing 105M tall dominating the skyline of Yangon. This is just one example.

• China has a museum in Xian which portrays to the development of paper as a Chinese success. Some would argue it came from Egypt. For me I don't know which, but the silk road connected both. 

Asia growth has been re-born

Swedagon Temple over 2000 years

My point here is simple. Whilst the last two centuries played out Asia has been fragmented, too poor to participate or protect against the western dominance. They emerged fractured and to some extent cowed. All that has changed, Asia has again risen and will only gain strength throughout this century.  As Professor Kishore Mahbubani, a Singaporean academic and diplomat published a provocative collection of essays titled Can Asians Think? Understanding East and Western thinking and the disparities it produces. As I can attest to, as an advisor to some of the largest companies in Indonesia.  Meetings with Western equity partners were always interesting the west had few shades of gray with Americans operating primarily in black and white. Whereby Asians have so many shades of gray. I'll leave you to ponder the significance of that.

It's important to see China for what it is: The west is deeply suspicious of China, and they should be. The west through George W Bush’s incompetence and Barack Obama couldn't care attitude they have allowed China to dominate the narrative. However, China has spent in Asia some $50billion on infrastructure but it has still bought them little in the way of traction in the region.
  

China's, overheating economy, protectionist policies, aggressive crowding to push competitors out. They are pushing other regions to the front. None less than the young of Indonesia they have with others become a priority for Asia's economic well-being.   China represents to just one-third of Asia’s population, half of Asia’s GDP, half of its outward investment, and less than half of its inbound investment. Asia is much more than just China. 

The Belt and Road scheme has many participants, it is the most significant diplomatic project of the twenty-first century. It is equivalent to the founding of the United Nations, World Bank add the Marshall Plan, it is that big! The crucial difference to these, BRI was conceived in Asia, launched in Asia and will be led by Asians.  More on the BRI click here  More on BRI click here

Asia, in my opinion Indonesia is the growth area.more on Indonesia click here

The Asian “supercomplex” has taken shape: this is evident within the cross-membership model to Asian intergovernmental organizations and through the appearance of political counterweights to China, particularly in India. The United States’ engagements in East and South Asia are also part of this supercomplex. The hardening of Beijing since 2008 has helped maintain US influence in Asia, despite Washington’s decline on the international stage.

Barry Buzan Professor of International Relations at the London School of Economics

There are copious books, white papers, government reports which have been written bestowing the virtues of doing business in Asia. What they seem to miss is the loss that companies will incur for not being represented in Asia. 

Asia consists of 5 billion people.

All to often we in the west are concerned by China and view Asia as China centric.  This is wrong. China is 1.5 billion people less than one third of Asia. Asia throughout history has influenced the west, their business practices, economies, and behaviours.  It's important to understand Asia stretches from Turkey in its West to China in the East with middle East termed middle Asia. It consists of many diverse civilizations which at times have engaged in conflict, but have always traded. 

When you consider America's period and the colonial period then you see just how short a window it was. History can be compartmentalized. 19C belonged to Europe as they colonized many parts of the globe, with the British leading the way, the British Empire. Following which, came the US era of dominance. But, as the US begins to wain we now look to Asia to emerge, and it’s not disappointing.

• It's important to understand Asia had a history of dominance. For almost two millennia they have established with one and another commercial ties which have stretched from the Caspian sea, Mediterranean to the Indus valley. From the fifteenth century Asia had diplomatic ties, economic infrastructure and an advanced cultural sensitivity in dealing with each other. 

A great example; the Buddhist Shwedagon temple situated in Myanmar (Burma) is just one testament of the cultural advance those regions have made, whilst we have languished in the ‘dark ages'. This temple has existed for more than two millennia. Its structure is immense standing 105M tall dominating the skyline of Yangon. This is just one example.

• China has a museum in Xian which portrays to the development of paper as a Chinese success. Some would argue it came from Egypt. For me I don't know which, but the silk road connected both. 

Asia growth has been re-born

Swedagon Temple over 2000 years

My point here is simple. Whilst the last two centuries played out Asia has been fragmented, too poor to participate or protect against the western dominance. They emerged fractured and to some extent cowed. All that has changed, Asia has again risen and will only gain strength throughout this century.  As Professor Kishore Mahbubani, a Singaporean academic and diplomat published a provocative collection of essays titled Can Asians Think? Understanding East and Western thinking and the disparities it produces. As I can attest to, as an advisor to some of the largest companies in Indonesia.  Meetings with Western equity partners were always interesting the west had few shades of gray with Americans operating primarily in black and white. Whereby Asians have so many shades of gray. I'll leave you to ponder the significance of that.

It's important to see China for what it is: The west is deeply suspicious of China, and they should be. The west through George W Bush’s incompetence and Barack Obama couldn't care attitude they have allowed China to dominate the narrative. However, China has spent in Asia some $50billion on infrastructure but it has still bought them little in the way of traction in the region.
  

China's, overheating economy, protectionist policies, aggressive crowding to push competitors out. They are pushing other regions to the front. None less than the young of Indonesia they have with others become a priority for Asia's economic well-being.   China represents to just one-third of Asia’s population, half of Asia’s GDP, half of its outward investment, and less than half of its inbound investment. Asia is much more than just China. 

The Belt and Road scheme has many participants, it is the most significant diplomatic project of the twenty-first century. It is equivalent to the founding of the United Nations, World Bank add the Marshall Plan, it is that big! The crucial difference to these, BRI was conceived in Asia, launched in Asia and will be led by Asians.  More on the BRI click here  More on BRI click here

Asia, in my opinion Indonesia is the growth area.more on Indonesia click here

Indonesia P.6 A Country Planning Its Capital City Move

Yesterday I spoke about a new airport, in fact 10 new airports. However, I singled one airport in particular, Tjilik Riwut. This airport is significant as it will most likely become the hub for the new capital city. For many years it has been a plan to move the government from Jakarta to potentially Kalimantan. This was considered back in the 60s during the reign of Sukarno, prior to Suharto. In fact, it has been a dream since the 40s, first considered at the time of their independence.

There is a pressing reason in which to do this, Jakarta is sinking. Over the last 10years Jakarta has sunk 2.5Metres with almost half the city now below sea level. The ground is absorbing the city. Some areas to the North are losing 25 cm per year. Worldwide many megacities close to coastal regions have a similar problem but Jakarta's problem is double the global average.

Kalimantan or to use its old designation Borneo is a perfect location for a new capital city. Again another example of the dynamic nature of this country.

The beneficiaries will of course be the infrastructure providers. Power,  Water purification, "Telecommunications network", roads, rail, bridges, ports, distribution, Cement manufacturers etc. The new airport terminal at a cost of $100sM whilst sizable is only a small part of the overall activity.

Jakarta is home to over 10M people and if this absorption continues unchecked then by 2050 most of the city will be underwater. It's predicted 95% of North Jakarta will have disappeared. The East and the West are not immune as they are sinking yearly at a rate of 15 cm and 10 cm respectively. Jakarta sits on swampy land with 13 major rivers passing through, whilst also having the Java sea lapping at its door.

Of course, significant work is required to prevent this city disappearing. Dykes, drainage, underpinning etc.  Overall in this vast archipelago we are still just touching the surface for the overall development taking place, this country marches forward to become the 5th largest economy.

Indonesia is located on what is known affectionately as the ring of fire, although there is nothing pleasant about it, situated on the World's major tectonic plates. Kalimantan is as far as you can be from these plates with earthquakes and Volcanic activity risk minimized.

Indonesia, for sure is ideal location to be established. Be aware the Chinese has targeted Indonesia with Indonesia signing up to the Chinese initiative known as the belt and road network.

Yesterday I spoke about a new airport, in fact 10 new airports. However, I singled one airport in particular, Tjilik Riwut. This airport is significant as it will most likely become the hub for the new capital city. For many years it has been a plan to move the government from Jakarta to potentially Kalimantan. This was considered back in the 60s during the reign of Sukarno, prior to Suharto. In fact, it has been a dream since the 40s, first considered at the time of their independence.

There is a pressing reason in which to do this, Jakarta is sinking. Over the last 10years Jakarta has sunk 2.5Metres with almost half the city now below sea level. The ground is absorbing the city. Some areas to the North are losing 25 cm per year. Worldwide many megacities close to coastal regions have a similar problem but Jakarta's problem is double the global average.

Kalimantan or to use its old designation Borneo is a perfect location for a new capital city. Again another example of the dynamic nature of this country.

The beneficiaries will of course be the infrastructure providers. Power,  Water purification, "Telecommunications network", roads, rail, bridges, ports, distribution, Cement manufacturers etc. The new airport terminal at a cost of $100sM whilst sizable is only a small part of the overall activity.

Jakarta is home to over 10M people and if this absorption continues unchecked then by 2050 most of the city will be underwater. It's predicted 95% of North Jakarta will have disappeared. The East and the West are not immune as they are sinking yearly at a rate of 15 cm and 10 cm respectively. Jakarta sits on swampy land with 13 major rivers passing through, whilst also having the Java sea lapping at its door.

Of course, significant work is required to prevent this city disappearing. Dykes, drainage, underpinning etc.  Overall in this vast archipelago we are still just touching the surface for the overall development taking place, this country marches forward to become the 5th largest economy.

Indonesia is located on what is known affectionately as the ring of fire, although there is nothing pleasant about it, situated on the World's major tectonic plates. Kalimantan is as far as you can be from these plates with earthquakes and Volcanic activity risk minimized.

Indonesia, for sure is ideal location to be established. Be aware the Chinese has targeted Indonesia with Indonesia signing up to the Chinese initiative known as the belt and road network.

Business Asia P.2. Indonesia

Indonesia Many Projects At A Governmental Level.  

For example:

Program to Accelerate Agrarian Reform (One Map Project).

Their plan, Environmental and social Management Framework (ESMF) is large, it's comprehensive and necessary to create a sustainable environment going forward.  Indonesia's population in 1960 was around 60M people it is now 260M. The archipelago is expansive with land rights poorly identified.  Much effort has been put into this project to map, identify areas in need of reform at the local village level.  It is important to establish actual rights of ownership, usage for sustainable growth, environment, conservation, together with a plan to mitigate the environmental impacts. The government have taken a pro active objective look at this reform program in order to insure individual rights are protected including women's rights, a subject we take for granted in the west.

They are to build this into an overall initiative to identify sustainable infrastructure projects. In order to meet their growth objectives going forward.  For this project alone they have allocated $240,000,0000.  The world bank have provided loans in the area of $200M at an interest of 0.5%. The rest is funded by Indonesia.

I have covered to show in some small way the commitments made to Indonesia in order that it becomes an economic power house. There are of course many infrastructure projects from ports, airports, road and rail. More on this later. 

A Point to consider for now is that Indonesia will have in April of this year, a General election. It is important to establish actual intentions from the various candidates going forward. The current team led by Jokowi their president is a stable force for good. He of course will be up for his 2nd term in office with 2 terms being the allocation. His tenure to date has created many improvements to the lives of the individuals and is a much loved President. 

This is a time to consider and actively plan your entry into one of Asia's vibrant lands of opportunity.

Indonesia Many Projects At A Governmental Level.  

For example:

Program to Accelerate Agrarian Reform (One Map Project).

Their plan, Environmental and social Management Framework (ESMF) is large, it's comprehensive and necessary to create a sustainable environment going forward.  Indonesia's population in 1960 was around 60M people it is now 260M. The archipelago is expansive with land rights poorly identified.  Much effort has been put into this project to map, identify areas in need of reform at the local village level.  It is important to establish actual rights of ownership, usage for sustainable growth, environment, conservation, together with a plan to mitigate the environmental impacts. The government have taken a pro active objective look at this reform program in order to insure individual rights are protected including women's rights, a subject we take for granted in the west.

They are to build this into an overall initiative to identify sustainable infrastructure projects. In order to meet their growth objectives going forward.  For this project alone they have allocated $240,000,0000.  The world bank have provided loans in the area of $200M at an interest of 0.5%. The rest is funded by Indonesia.

I have covered to show in some small way the commitments made to Indonesia in order that it becomes an economic power house. There are of course many infrastructure projects from ports, airports, road and rail. More on this later. 

A Point to consider for now is that Indonesia will have in April of this year, a General election. It is important to establish actual intentions from the various candidates going forward. The current team led by Jokowi their president is a stable force for good. He of course will be up for his 2nd term in office with 2 terms being the allocation. His tenure to date has created many improvements to the lives of the individuals and is a much loved President. 

This is a time to consider and actively plan your entry into one of Asia's vibrant lands of opportunity.

Asia is where it's at! But first we have to Brexit

I have said a great deal about the growth of the Euro zone since 2008. It has been a lacklustre 2.2%. At a time when the world economy has grown significantly US 14% Canada 14%. UK 8.8%, Eurozone France 4.6%, Germany 7.4% Greece -27%. Etc., Just to add to that had it not been for QE then where would the Eurozone be?

If the EU is to survive we have to leave it, for our own protection we have to break the chains from this failing project.

This blog will have a light poem to break with my serious post. But the gravitas is there!

Changes that occur in the EU of gloom.

Flowers that all of a sudden doomed

Period of joy that seems so lost

In this frenzy Euro of political indecision.

For the tears that drop from their eyes.

For what they've felt from pain and sigh

And haven't seen anything that can trade

The burning sun from the UK's cool shade.

In such a time, what you must do.

Is to think of positive changes and view

And know soon all your EU trials

Will be swapped with the joyful UK smile. 

And this you can only achieve.

If you know how you can trust and believe

And keep a positive thinking in gloom

Then the UK of joy will surely bloom. 

I have been asked many times why I believe we have to leave the EU for it to survive. The answer is very simple it is a dogmatic organization that unless it changes it will implode.

By us leaving they will be forced to make that change. The divisions across the EU are serious. Our EU masters, to use a provocative term have their heads in the sand. Look to the current situation: populism with a swing to the right is happening across Europe. Why is this? Very simple the Euro is a straight jacket an ill thought through political project that favour corporate Germany and the northern countries. It is devastating the fringe. The very founding principles of the Union are to build a more cohesive unified moderate tolerant union. That is not happening. If this continues then Fascism and Racism will rise up. Exactly the reverse of the union's mandate.


Rules and regulations are absurd eg. We have to label Salmon as consumer may not be aware it contains fish. The northern states are seeing the rules and regulation that they adhere to, are being flouted by the southern states. France has always worked an angle to avoid them applying to them. The animosity is building the tension is serious, look to the discussion in regard to Italy's budget.

Big is not better there are numerous examples in history where this has proven not to work.

Let's look back in history to around 1860. Italy was made up of a number of city states, kingdoms and regions kind of principalities. They were united around 1860 politically, monetarily and fiscally. From then until now the south the so called Bourbon Kingdom has been depressed, industry ruined, agriculture went into decline. Millions left and went to north and South America.

There are disturbing parallels here today with Greece. Has history taught us nothing!

Usually when regions are depressed other regions increase activity in order to assist those regions. This is how the UK operates. But instead here you have the one country able to assist they continued to practise fiscal responsibility, which is correct if they are in isolation, but they are not. France is slowly drifting towards the south. The labour laws can not be reformed as we are seeing from the protests on the streets today.

I have said a great deal about the growth of the Euro zone since 2008. It has been a lacklustre 2.2%. At a time when the world economy has grown significantly US 14% Canada 14%. UK 8.8%, Eurozone France 4.6%, Germany 7.4% Greece -27%. Etc., Just to add to that had it not been for QE then where would the Eurozone be?

If the EU is to survive we have to leave it, for our own protection we have to break the chains from this failing project.

This blog will have a light poem to break with my serious post. But the gravitas is there!

Changes that occur in the EU of gloom.

Flowers that all of a sudden doomed

Period of joy that seems so lost

In this frenzy Euro of political indecision.

For the tears that drop from their eyes.

For what they've felt from pain and sigh

And haven't seen anything that can trade

The burning sun from the UK's cool shade.

In such a time, what you must do.

Is to think of positive changes and view

And know soon all your EU trials

Will be swapped with the joyful UK smile. 

And this you can only achieve.

If you know how you can trust and believe

And keep a positive thinking in gloom

Then the UK of joy will surely bloom. 

I have been asked many times why I believe we have to leave the EU for it to survive. The answer is very simple it is a dogmatic organization that unless it changes it will implode.

By us leaving they will be forced to make that change. The divisions across the EU are serious. Our EU masters, to use a provocative term have their heads in the sand. Look to the current situation: populism with a swing to the right is happening across Europe. Why is this? Very simple the Euro is a straight jacket an ill thought through political project that favour corporate Germany and the northern countries. It is devastating the fringe. The very founding principles of the Union are to build a more cohesive unified moderate tolerant union. That is not happening. If this continues then Fascism and Racism will rise up. Exactly the reverse of the union's mandate.


Rules and regulations are absurd eg. We have to label Salmon as consumer may not be aware it contains fish. The northern states are seeing the rules and regulation that they adhere to, are being flouted by the southern states. France has always worked an angle to avoid them applying to them. The animosity is building the tension is serious, look to the discussion in regard to Italy's budget.

Big is not better there are numerous examples in history where this has proven not to work.

Let's look back in history to around 1860. Italy was made up of a number of city states, kingdoms and regions kind of principalities. They were united around 1860 politically, monetarily and fiscally. From then until now the south the so called Bourbon Kingdom has been depressed, industry ruined, agriculture went into decline. Millions left and went to north and South America.

There are disturbing parallels here today with Greece. Has history taught us nothing!

Usually when regions are depressed other regions increase activity in order to assist those regions. This is how the UK operates. But instead here you have the one country able to assist they continued to practise fiscal responsibility, which is correct if they are in isolation, but they are not. France is slowly drifting towards the south. The labour laws can not be reformed as we are seeing from the protests on the streets today.

Brexit - Dysons move to Singapore a role model for the UK

Today a lot will be made of James Dyson’s announcement reference Singapore. The doom sayers will jump on this implying his negativity to his Brexit stance. Using it to display a lack of faith in the UK post Brexit. I would countenance the opposite. When you read his announcement he is very clear that he will and has continued to invest in the UK. Spending over £200M renovating the airfield at Hullavington technology campus.

You should also know that the EU introduced regulation that favoured German manufactures of vacuum cleaners. Effectively allowing German technology to mask the performance, gaming the system, another diesel gate.  This resulted in a long and costly court battle which Dyson won. It was hailed as a victory for consumers.

What Dyson is doing is what we all should look to and that is to follow where the markets are going.  There is no better place to start than to look to the PWC report showing how the Emerging (Emerged) markets will evolve to be the leading markets of the world.

Indeed, within a few short years the top 5 economies only 1 will be from the west, the USA which will occupy the no.2 slot. By 2030 China no.1. USA no.2. Japan no.3. India no.4 and Indonesia no.5. Conversely, only 1 EU country will show up in the top 10 that being Germany at no.8. No.9 Mexico no. 10 UK.  In fact in the top 30 the GDP represented by the EU comes in at $15trillion. Asia will represent five times that, in the region of $70trillion.  So Dyson is absolutely right to look to the East.

Very soon we need to get our act together. The remainers will hamstring this country and the fears they present will come true because of our paralysis.

Today a lot will be made of James Dyson’s announcement reference Singapore. The doom sayers will jump on this implying his negativity to his Brexit stance. Using it to display a lack of faith in the UK post Brexit. I would countenance the opposite. When you read his announcement he is very clear that he will and has continued to invest in the UK. Spending over £200M renovating the airfield at Hullavington technology campus.

You should also know that the EU introduced regulation that favoured German manufactures of vacuum cleaners. Effectively allowing German technology to mask the performance, gaming the system, another diesel gate.  This resulted in a long and costly court battle which Dyson won. It was hailed as a victory for consumers.

What Dyson is doing is what we all should look to and that is to follow where the markets are going.  There is no better place to start than to look to the PWC report showing how the Emerging (Emerged) markets will evolve to be the leading markets of the world.

Indeed, within a few short years the top 5 economies only 1 will be from the west, the USA which will occupy the no.2 slot. By 2030 China no.1. USA no.2. Japan no.3. India no.4 and Indonesia no.5. Conversely, only 1 EU country will show up in the top 10 that being Germany at no.8. No.9 Mexico no. 10 UK.  In fact in the top 30 the GDP represented by the EU comes in at $15trillion. Asia will represent five times that, in the region of $70trillion.  So Dyson is absolutely right to look to the East.

Very soon we need to get our act together. The remainers will hamstring this country and the fears they present will come true because of our paralysis.