Trump's Naughty List Drives Asia Growth

Trump's cross hairs, there's a pun but not intended. China, South Korea and India on Trump's naughty list it's not difficult to see who the beneficiaries are: For sure Indonesia but not just Indonesia, Vietnam has benefited. Asia have redoubled their efforts to increase trade and trade relationships, 28 from 44 FTAs “Free Trade Agreements” proposed are between Asian nation states. Cohesive active even pro-active dyads, trade relationships have grown significantly since the global crisis, weathered, even ignored the Trump doctrine, this is set to only improve further.

I bring you back to an earlier note of mine, one where I talk about Asia's third wave, it's worth a read, click here. The other where I cover PWC, their forecast for the World Economic growth, in a few short years PWC claim on a measure of GDP that 4 of the top 5 countries will be Asia. China, USA, Japan, India and Indonesia.

Two situations are emerging, in reality they are already upon us. One technology is no longer the domain of the USA, perhaps it's too early to write  the US off, for innovation or R&D. For several decades North Asia has maintained the industrial mantle for mass production with labour split between Japan, South Korea and China adding Taiwan and Hong Kong at a later stage.  From these five countries they account for $4.2 Trillion Asian exports, this is equivalent to North America, the European Union combined.

In the year 2000 China represented less than 10% of Asia's technology exports, today 44%. Huawei, Lenovo, Haier, and BYD Automobile Company all rank ahead of their Asian peers and Western rivals in categories such as telecom equipment, laptops, appliances, and electric cars. But of course their manufacturing links are all highly integrated as China relies on South Korea and Japan for their semi-conductors.

What Asia is aware of, their markets were once primarily the West this is no longer the case, their markets today are other Asian countries. Hence, the dawning of an age in shifting manufacturing to the south productivity grew, whilst opening new markets to export too. 

Cost of labour to the north has increased as has the cost of living. I've mention in an earlier document that average daily rate on the manufacturing shop floor is $30, Indonesia and Vietnam are still able to maintain $10 per day, with a substantial workforce, a median age below 30.

Indonesia has vast Industrial parks one of which can be seen in the image above. Companies from the west such as Siemens, ABB are already established, but, also from Asia Foxconn, JVC, Omron etc.  Pegatron will invest $300M opening a 2 hectare manufacturing plant in just one of Indonesia's industrial zones. Foxconn and Pegatron manufacture in excess of 80% of the world's iPhones. Hyundai announced in Dec 2018 plans to move electric car manufacturing to Indonesia with an investment of $800M. Hyundai anticipate 53% of their cars will head to Asia and Australia, the remainder serving the Indonesian domestic market. Not to be out done VW will build the Tiguan in Indonesia with a €50M investment.

Japan since the 1970s have invested in Southeast Asia but in recent years has increased its investment to $20billion, they are looking to manufacture Nissan electric and flexfuel (Ethanol and other biofuel) vehicles. 

I reaffirm the west should look to join their compatriots, explore the possibilities of cheaper markets for manufacture. Positioning for a burgeoning middle class able to consume at the rate that a westerner used to be able to. 

Since 2014, US, European, and even Chinese companies have outsourced to Asian nations, Japan and South Korea have led the way in moving manufacturing to this region. South East Asia has attracted more annual investment than China.  Asian’s total annual trade amounts to nearly $2.2 trillion, one-quarter of which is within Asian, 15 percent with China, and 10 percent with Japan.

Since the Asian-China Free Trade Area (ACFTA) established in 2000 this created by population (combined population of 2.5 billion people) the largest free-trade agreement in the world, South East and East Asia has become China’s third largest trading partner with $400 billion in annual trade. Don't be surprised if Asia displaces Europe and North America as the primary destination for Asia exports.

Whilst Europe squabbles over regulation and authoritarianism Asia is racing ahead. 

Can you afford to miss Indonesia in the 21C.

Trump's cross hairs, there's a pun but not intended. China, South Korea and India on Trump's naughty list it's not difficult to see who the beneficiaries are: For sure Indonesia but not just Indonesia, Vietnam has benefited. Asia have redoubled their efforts to increase trade and trade relationships, 28 from 44 FTAs “Free Trade Agreements” proposed are between Asian nation states. Cohesive active even pro-active dyads, trade relationships have grown significantly since the global crisis, weathered, even ignored the Trump doctrine, this is set to only improve further.

I bring you back to an earlier note of mine, one where I talk about Asia's third wave, it's worth a read, click here. The other where I cover PWC, their forecast for the World Economic growth, in a few short years PWC claim on a measure of GDP that 4 of the top 5 countries will be Asia. China, USA, Japan, India and Indonesia.

Two situations are emerging, in reality they are already upon us. One technology is no longer the domain of the USA, perhaps it's too early to write  the US off, for innovation or R&D. For several decades North Asia has maintained the industrial mantle for mass production with labour split between Japan, South Korea and China adding Taiwan and Hong Kong at a later stage.  From these five countries they account for $4.2 Trillion Asian exports, this is equivalent to North America, the European Union combined.

In the year 2000 China represented less than 10% of Asia's technology exports, today 44%. Huawei, Lenovo, Haier, and BYD Automobile Company all rank ahead of their Asian peers and Western rivals in categories such as telecom equipment, laptops, appliances, and electric cars. But of course their manufacturing links are all highly integrated as China relies on South Korea and Japan for their semi-conductors.

What Asia is aware of, their markets were once primarily the West this is no longer the case, their markets today are other Asian countries. Hence, the dawning of an age in shifting manufacturing to the south productivity grew, whilst opening new markets to export too. 

Cost of labour to the north has increased as has the cost of living. I've mention in an earlier document that average daily rate on the manufacturing shop floor is $30, Indonesia and Vietnam are still able to maintain $10 per day, with a substantial workforce, a median age below 30.

Indonesia has vast Industrial parks one of which can be seen in the image above. Companies from the west such as Siemens, ABB are already established, but, also from Asia Foxconn, JVC, Omron etc.  Pegatron will invest $300M opening a 2 hectare manufacturing plant in just one of Indonesia's industrial zones. Foxconn and Pegatron manufacture in excess of 80% of the world's iPhones. Hyundai announced in Dec 2018 plans to move electric car manufacturing to Indonesia with an investment of $800M. Hyundai anticipate 53% of their cars will head to Asia and Australia, the remainder serving the Indonesian domestic market. Not to be out done VW will build the Tiguan in Indonesia with a €50M investment.

Japan since the 1970s have invested in Southeast Asia but in recent years has increased its investment to $20billion, they are looking to manufacture Nissan electric and flexfuel (Ethanol and other biofuel) vehicles. 

I reaffirm the west should look to join their compatriots, explore the possibilities of cheaper markets for manufacture. Positioning for a burgeoning middle class able to consume at the rate that a westerner used to be able to. 

Since 2014, US, European, and even Chinese companies have outsourced to Asian nations, Japan and South Korea have led the way in moving manufacturing to this region. South East Asia has attracted more annual investment than China.  Asian’s total annual trade amounts to nearly $2.2 trillion, one-quarter of which is within Asian, 15 percent with China, and 10 percent with Japan.

Since the Asian-China Free Trade Area (ACFTA) established in 2000 this created by population (combined population of 2.5 billion people) the largest free-trade agreement in the world, South East and East Asia has become China’s third largest trading partner with $400 billion in annual trade. Don't be surprised if Asia displaces Europe and North America as the primary destination for Asia exports.

Whilst Europe squabbles over regulation and authoritarianism Asia is racing ahead. 

Can you afford to miss Indonesia in the 21C.

Brexit - Damned if I do and damned if I don't.

Jeremy Corbyn or indeed Theresa May for that matter they are not leaders, if they were their branches would not be swaying every which way. I believe, that we the electorate matter not one jot any more.

To delay is to prolong this confusion, this vacuum until such time that the remainers predictions arrive at our doorstep. Not because of Brexit because of prolonged dis-unity and the fog of chaos that has descended across the UK. Self sabotage is an award that belongs firmly with the UK parliamentary parties, for some considerable time it looked as though the Irish Taoiseach could have the award.

Surely any sane person would know you can't negotiate if the other party know where you'll stop. The EU have not had to play this well they just had to play to the divisions in the country's political parties. They did not even have to be concerned by the British people and their vote.  Just like they weren't with the Irish or the Danes.  Just like they care not one iota for the under 25s across the med.  And, just as long as their authoritarian projects protect their vested interests.

How could these two parties emerge at the same time? Both are rudderless, both are led by their tails and neither give a damn about the electorate.



This should have been done and dusted by now. Life would be normal we would have found our balance in the world. We would have escaped the clutches of the failing project, with all its favouritism, protectionism and elitism.

Ten percent of our exports go into Europe, and we think that should concern us enough that we allow the behaviours of chaos and confusion to jeopardize the other 90%. I think the SMEs are being to British and should be speaking out more to end this farce, the pantomime season is over.  This is not some allegory, shadow in a cave, this is real life. The harm the politicians are doing is real and its tangible.

The parties of our government behave in a way that is reminiscent of Prometheus verses Zeus, Prometheus gave fire to the people, Zeus wanted it for himself, or Robin Hood verses the Sheriff together with the Cardinals, wrecked havoc to protect their ill-gotten gains and to keep the people down-trodden. This is the 21C we don't do down-trodden and nor do we do subterfuge.  Play your games, snipe at each other but do it at your own expense. You're not disciples of Zeus and we will not drink from your cup!



A second referendum is just another way to delay, wreck the economy further. For what? If you must have something, have an election, give us at least a fighting chance to have representatives who hummmm represent us?!

Jeremy Corbyn or indeed Theresa May for that matter they are not leaders, if they were their branches would not be swaying every which way. I believe, that we the electorate matter not one jot any more.

To delay is to prolong this confusion, this vacuum until such time that the remainers predictions arrive at our doorstep. Not because of Brexit because of prolonged dis-unity and the fog of chaos that has descended across the UK. Self sabotage is an award that belongs firmly with the UK parliamentary parties, for some considerable time it looked as though the Irish Taoiseach could have the award.

Surely any sane person would know you can't negotiate if the other party know where you'll stop. The EU have not had to play this well they just had to play to the divisions in the country's political parties. They did not even have to be concerned by the British people and their vote.  Just like they weren't with the Irish or the Danes.  Just like they care not one iota for the under 25s across the med.  And, just as long as their authoritarian projects protect their vested interests.

How could these two parties emerge at the same time? Both are rudderless, both are led by their tails and neither give a damn about the electorate.



This should have been done and dusted by now. Life would be normal we would have found our balance in the world. We would have escaped the clutches of the failing project, with all its favouritism, protectionism and elitism.

Ten percent of our exports go into Europe, and we think that should concern us enough that we allow the behaviours of chaos and confusion to jeopardize the other 90%. I think the SMEs are being to British and should be speaking out more to end this farce, the pantomime season is over.  This is not some allegory, shadow in a cave, this is real life. The harm the politicians are doing is real and its tangible.

The parties of our government behave in a way that is reminiscent of Prometheus verses Zeus, Prometheus gave fire to the people, Zeus wanted it for himself, or Robin Hood verses the Sheriff together with the Cardinals, wrecked havoc to protect their ill-gotten gains and to keep the people down-trodden. This is the 21C we don't do down-trodden and nor do we do subterfuge.  Play your games, snipe at each other but do it at your own expense. You're not disciples of Zeus and we will not drink from your cup!



A second referendum is just another way to delay, wreck the economy further. For what? If you must have something, have an election, give us at least a fighting chance to have representatives who hummmm represent us?!

Business Asia P.2. Indonesia

Indonesia Many Projects At A Governmental Level.  

For example:

Program to Accelerate Agrarian Reform (One Map Project).

Their plan, Environmental and social Management Framework (ESMF) is large, it's comprehensive and necessary to create a sustainable environment going forward.  Indonesia's population in 1960 was around 60M people it is now 260M. The archipelago is expansive with land rights poorly identified.  Much effort has been put into this project to map, identify areas in need of reform at the local village level.  It is important to establish actual rights of ownership, usage for sustainable growth, environment, conservation, together with a plan to mitigate the environmental impacts. The government have taken a pro active objective look at this reform program in order to insure individual rights are protected including women's rights, a subject we take for granted in the west.

They are to build this into an overall initiative to identify sustainable infrastructure projects. In order to meet their growth objectives going forward.  For this project alone they have allocated $240,000,0000.  The world bank have provided loans in the area of $200M at an interest of 0.5%. The rest is funded by Indonesia.

I have covered to show in some small way the commitments made to Indonesia in order that it becomes an economic power house. There are of course many infrastructure projects from ports, airports, road and rail. More on this later. 

A Point to consider for now is that Indonesia will have in April of this year, a General election. It is important to establish actual intentions from the various candidates going forward. The current team led by Jokowi their president is a stable force for good. He of course will be up for his 2nd term in office with 2 terms being the allocation. His tenure to date has created many improvements to the lives of the individuals and is a much loved President. 

This is a time to consider and actively plan your entry into one of Asia's vibrant lands of opportunity.

Indonesia Many Projects At A Governmental Level.  

For example:

Program to Accelerate Agrarian Reform (One Map Project).

Their plan, Environmental and social Management Framework (ESMF) is large, it's comprehensive and necessary to create a sustainable environment going forward.  Indonesia's population in 1960 was around 60M people it is now 260M. The archipelago is expansive with land rights poorly identified.  Much effort has been put into this project to map, identify areas in need of reform at the local village level.  It is important to establish actual rights of ownership, usage for sustainable growth, environment, conservation, together with a plan to mitigate the environmental impacts. The government have taken a pro active objective look at this reform program in order to insure individual rights are protected including women's rights, a subject we take for granted in the west.

They are to build this into an overall initiative to identify sustainable infrastructure projects. In order to meet their growth objectives going forward.  For this project alone they have allocated $240,000,0000.  The world bank have provided loans in the area of $200M at an interest of 0.5%. The rest is funded by Indonesia.

I have covered to show in some small way the commitments made to Indonesia in order that it becomes an economic power house. There are of course many infrastructure projects from ports, airports, road and rail. More on this later. 

A Point to consider for now is that Indonesia will have in April of this year, a General election. It is important to establish actual intentions from the various candidates going forward. The current team led by Jokowi their president is a stable force for good. He of course will be up for his 2nd term in office with 2 terms being the allocation. His tenure to date has created many improvements to the lives of the individuals and is a much loved President. 

This is a time to consider and actively plan your entry into one of Asia's vibrant lands of opportunity.

Asia is where it's at! But first we have to Brexit

I have said a great deal about the growth of the Euro zone since 2008. It has been a lacklustre 2.2%. At a time when the world economy has grown significantly US 14% Canada 14%. UK 8.8%, Eurozone France 4.6%, Germany 7.4% Greece -27%. Etc., Just to add to that had it not been for QE then where would the Eurozone be?

If the EU is to survive we have to leave it, for our own protection we have to break the chains from this failing project.

This blog will have a light poem to break with my serious post. But the gravitas is there!

Changes that occur in the EU of gloom.

Flowers that all of a sudden doomed

Period of joy that seems so lost

In this frenzy Euro of political indecision.

For the tears that drop from their eyes.

For what they've felt from pain and sigh

And haven't seen anything that can trade

The burning sun from the UK's cool shade.

In such a time, what you must do.

Is to think of positive changes and view

And know soon all your EU trials

Will be swapped with the joyful UK smile. 

And this you can only achieve.

If you know how you can trust and believe

And keep a positive thinking in gloom

Then the UK of joy will surely bloom. 

I have been asked many times why I believe we have to leave the EU for it to survive. The answer is very simple it is a dogmatic organization that unless it changes it will implode.

By us leaving they will be forced to make that change. The divisions across the EU are serious. Our EU masters, to use a provocative term have their heads in the sand. Look to the current situation: populism with a swing to the right is happening across Europe. Why is this? Very simple the Euro is a straight jacket an ill thought through political project that favour corporate Germany and the northern countries. It is devastating the fringe. The very founding principles of the Union are to build a more cohesive unified moderate tolerant union. That is not happening. If this continues then Fascism and Racism will rise up. Exactly the reverse of the union's mandate.


Rules and regulations are absurd eg. We have to label Salmon as consumer may not be aware it contains fish. The northern states are seeing the rules and regulation that they adhere to, are being flouted by the southern states. France has always worked an angle to avoid them applying to them. The animosity is building the tension is serious, look to the discussion in regard to Italy's budget.

Big is not better there are numerous examples in history where this has proven not to work.

Let's look back in history to around 1860. Italy was made up of a number of city states, kingdoms and regions kind of principalities. They were united around 1860 politically, monetarily and fiscally. From then until now the south the so called Bourbon Kingdom has been depressed, industry ruined, agriculture went into decline. Millions left and went to north and South America.

There are disturbing parallels here today with Greece. Has history taught us nothing!

Usually when regions are depressed other regions increase activity in order to assist those regions. This is how the UK operates. But instead here you have the one country able to assist they continued to practise fiscal responsibility, which is correct if they are in isolation, but they are not. France is slowly drifting towards the south. The labour laws can not be reformed as we are seeing from the protests on the streets today.

I have said a great deal about the growth of the Euro zone since 2008. It has been a lacklustre 2.2%. At a time when the world economy has grown significantly US 14% Canada 14%. UK 8.8%, Eurozone France 4.6%, Germany 7.4% Greece -27%. Etc., Just to add to that had it not been for QE then where would the Eurozone be?

If the EU is to survive we have to leave it, for our own protection we have to break the chains from this failing project.

This blog will have a light poem to break with my serious post. But the gravitas is there!

Changes that occur in the EU of gloom.

Flowers that all of a sudden doomed

Period of joy that seems so lost

In this frenzy Euro of political indecision.

For the tears that drop from their eyes.

For what they've felt from pain and sigh

And haven't seen anything that can trade

The burning sun from the UK's cool shade.

In such a time, what you must do.

Is to think of positive changes and view

And know soon all your EU trials

Will be swapped with the joyful UK smile. 

And this you can only achieve.

If you know how you can trust and believe

And keep a positive thinking in gloom

Then the UK of joy will surely bloom. 

I have been asked many times why I believe we have to leave the EU for it to survive. The answer is very simple it is a dogmatic organization that unless it changes it will implode.

By us leaving they will be forced to make that change. The divisions across the EU are serious. Our EU masters, to use a provocative term have their heads in the sand. Look to the current situation: populism with a swing to the right is happening across Europe. Why is this? Very simple the Euro is a straight jacket an ill thought through political project that favour corporate Germany and the northern countries. It is devastating the fringe. The very founding principles of the Union are to build a more cohesive unified moderate tolerant union. That is not happening. If this continues then Fascism and Racism will rise up. Exactly the reverse of the union's mandate.


Rules and regulations are absurd eg. We have to label Salmon as consumer may not be aware it contains fish. The northern states are seeing the rules and regulation that they adhere to, are being flouted by the southern states. France has always worked an angle to avoid them applying to them. The animosity is building the tension is serious, look to the discussion in regard to Italy's budget.

Big is not better there are numerous examples in history where this has proven not to work.

Let's look back in history to around 1860. Italy was made up of a number of city states, kingdoms and regions kind of principalities. They were united around 1860 politically, monetarily and fiscally. From then until now the south the so called Bourbon Kingdom has been depressed, industry ruined, agriculture went into decline. Millions left and went to north and South America.

There are disturbing parallels here today with Greece. Has history taught us nothing!

Usually when regions are depressed other regions increase activity in order to assist those regions. This is how the UK operates. But instead here you have the one country able to assist they continued to practise fiscal responsibility, which is correct if they are in isolation, but they are not. France is slowly drifting towards the south. The labour laws can not be reformed as we are seeing from the protests on the streets today.

Brexit - Dysons move to Singapore a role model for the UK

Today a lot will be made of James Dyson’s announcement reference Singapore. The doom sayers will jump on this implying his negativity to his Brexit stance. Using it to display a lack of faith in the UK post Brexit. I would countenance the opposite. When you read his announcement he is very clear that he will and has continued to invest in the UK. Spending over £200M renovating the airfield at Hullavington technology campus.

You should also know that the EU introduced regulation that favoured German manufactures of vacuum cleaners. Effectively allowing German technology to mask the performance, gaming the system, another diesel gate.  This resulted in a long and costly court battle which Dyson won. It was hailed as a victory for consumers.

What Dyson is doing is what we all should look to and that is to follow where the markets are going.  There is no better place to start than to look to the PWC report showing how the Emerging (Emerged) markets will evolve to be the leading markets of the world.

Indeed, within a few short years the top 5 economies only 1 will be from the west, the USA which will occupy the no.2 slot. By 2030 China no.1. USA no.2. Japan no.3. India no.4 and Indonesia no.5. Conversely, only 1 EU country will show up in the top 10 that being Germany at no.8. No.9 Mexico no. 10 UK.  In fact in the top 30 the GDP represented by the EU comes in at $15trillion. Asia will represent five times that, in the region of $70trillion.  So Dyson is absolutely right to look to the East.

Very soon we need to get our act together. The remainers will hamstring this country and the fears they present will come true because of our paralysis.

Today a lot will be made of James Dyson’s announcement reference Singapore. The doom sayers will jump on this implying his negativity to his Brexit stance. Using it to display a lack of faith in the UK post Brexit. I would countenance the opposite. When you read his announcement he is very clear that he will and has continued to invest in the UK. Spending over £200M renovating the airfield at Hullavington technology campus.

You should also know that the EU introduced regulation that favoured German manufactures of vacuum cleaners. Effectively allowing German technology to mask the performance, gaming the system, another diesel gate.  This resulted in a long and costly court battle which Dyson won. It was hailed as a victory for consumers.

What Dyson is doing is what we all should look to and that is to follow where the markets are going.  There is no better place to start than to look to the PWC report showing how the Emerging (Emerged) markets will evolve to be the leading markets of the world.

Indeed, within a few short years the top 5 economies only 1 will be from the west, the USA which will occupy the no.2 slot. By 2030 China no.1. USA no.2. Japan no.3. India no.4 and Indonesia no.5. Conversely, only 1 EU country will show up in the top 10 that being Germany at no.8. No.9 Mexico no. 10 UK.  In fact in the top 30 the GDP represented by the EU comes in at $15trillion. Asia will represent five times that, in the region of $70trillion.  So Dyson is absolutely right to look to the East.

Very soon we need to get our act together. The remainers will hamstring this country and the fears they present will come true because of our paralysis.