I posted this several weeks ago it looks quite topical today.
Germany wants to maintain close ties with the U.K. for all the right reasons, security, intelligence, trade etc. They are rightly concerned in regard to Trump's America.
The UK has a trade deficit with the EU of £91billion, the UK exports to the EU have declined over the last 10years.
These are all solid reasons why the EU will continue to trade and continue close ties with the UK.
I believe unless there is structural change the EU will have serious issues going forward which will inhibit growth. But worse undermine the very principles on which it exists. The Euro needs to split. It needs to give the southern states greater autonomy to manage their own exchange rates and foster growth. In short give hope to the vast numbers of unemployed youth.
Two events in our history where we were encouraged to stay with a system that was harming us. A little like cognitive behaviour therapy. In 1931, almost unanimously our MPs, economists experts we were encouraged to stay with the gold standard. That is all but Keynes who encouraged us to leave. In September 1931 we broke with that standard. There were huge cries of disaster. Immediately we were able to drop interest rates and this ushered in the fastest economic growth of British history.
Another event was the joining of the ERM in 1992. Interest rates spiralled upwards. Unemployment rose sharply. So on the face of it, it was easy to break the bank not due to smart thinking, more because of the obvious political obsession of the EU project. The doom sayer predicted higher rates still and even higher unemployment. In reality the opposite was true.
The obsessive focus on the EU project will unwind it. Best we leave whilst we have a chance.
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